Which states have the most contested gerrymanders and which party benefited most in each?
Executive summary
Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida and several other states are the epicenters of high-profile, contested mid‑decade redistricting fights; Texas’s new congressional map alone is projected to net Republicans as many as five additional U.S. House seats and has been stayed and reinstated through multiple federal court and U.S. Supreme Court actions [1] [2]. Trackers and analysts from Cook, Democracy Docket and the Brennan Center show Republicans controlled far more of the maps drawn this cycle — 191 districts drawn by Republican-controlled governments versus 75 by Democrats — producing the greatest opportunities for GOP gains [3] [4] [5].
1. Texas — the headline fight and the likely GOP beneficiary
Texas is the single most litigated example: a federal district court found the map was an illegal racial gerrymander and barred its use for 2026, but the Supreme Court temporarily stayed that ruling and ultimately allowed the map to be used, with analysts estimating the new plan could give Republicans up to five extra House seats [2] [1] [6]. The high court’s decision cited deference to legislative intent and procedural timing, while lower courts and voting‑rights advocates argued the map diluted Black and Latino coalition districts [2] [1].
2. Missouri and North Carolina — Republican‑led redraws drawing immediate legal and political backlash
Republican legislatures in Missouri and North Carolina passed new congressional maps explicitly aimed at gaining more Republican seats; both states face litigation and public referendums or counter‑moves from Democrats, per reporting that lists them among states where GOP mid‑decade redistricting has been most aggressive [2] [7]. The Brennan Center and trackers flag North Carolina in particular as moving from relatively fair to highly partisan under new plans [3].
3. Florida, Indiana, Virginia, Maryland — mid‑decade activity with mixed winners
Florida, Indiana, Virginia and Maryland have all taken official steps toward mid‑decade redistricting; outcomes and net partisan beneficiaries vary by state. Cook projects Republicans are likeliest to pad a small House majority with one to two seats overall if key maps (notably Texas) are upheld, but it cautions the landscape remains unsettled [8] [5]. In some Democratic‑run states the legislature or commissions are considering maps that would favor Democrats in response to GOP moves [2] [4].
4. National patterns: who drew maps and who benefits
The Brennan Center documents that Republicans disproportionately controlled map drawing this decade — responsible for 191 districts compared with 75 for Democrats — creating a systemic tilt toward GOP advantage absent federal reform [3]. Democracy Docket’s live tracker corroborates that many contested maps are Republican initiatives and that Democratic states are mounting counter‑moves or litigation in response [4].
5. Litigation and legal questions reshape outcomes, not just legislatures
This redistricting fight is as much about courts as statehouses. Federal and state courts have blocked, modified or invited remaps in Alabama, Utah, California and elsewhere; Texas’s fight reached the U.S. Supreme Court, which weighed deference to legislatures and the timing of judicial intervention [9] [2] [1]. The Brennan Center’s litigation roundup shows ongoing Section 2 Voting Rights Act claims and state constitutional challenges are central to whether contested maps ultimately stand [9].
6. Competing narratives and political incentives
Republican officials and allies argue mid‑decade redistricting is legitimate politics and necessary to respond to population changes or legal vulnerabilities; critics say the moves are coordinated to entrench a narrow House majority and to insulate against electoral swings [2] [1]. The Cook Political Report frames the GOP scenario as the likeliest path to preserving and modestly expanding a slim majority, while advocacy trackers emphasize the democratic costs of partisan mid‑decade redraws [5] [4].
7. What reporting doesn’t settle — limits and open questions
Available sources quantify likely GOP seat gains in key states (Texas potentially +5 seats) and document who controlled map drawing [1] [3], but they do not provide a definitive state‑by‑state list ranked by “most contested” with a single, agreed metric; Democracy Docket and Cook offer state trackers and projections, while litigated states appear across Brennan Center summaries [4] [5] [9]. Precise net seat outcomes remain projections contingent on court rulings and final map adoptions [5].
8. Bottom line — contested gerrymanders are concentrated where Republicans controlled mapmaking, but Democrats are fighting back in courts and legislatures
The clearest pattern in current reporting is that the most contested mid‑decade redraws are concentrated in Republican‑controlled states — Texas, Missouri and North Carolina prominent among them — and that those maps are constructed to deliver GOP House gains [2] [1] [3]. Opposition comes via litigation, referenda and Democratic counter‑maps; final effects on House control hinge on pending court decisions and whether state plans survive legal scrutiny [9] [5].