Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
What are the most Democratic counties in Texas?
Executive Summary
The available analyses converge on a clear pattern: the most Democratic counties in Texas are a mix of very small, rural South Texas border counties and the state’s largest urban counties, with Zavala, Travis, El Paso, Presidio, Brooks, Jim Hogg, Dallas, Harris and Webb repeatedly named among the bluest in recent cycles. County rankings vary by methodology — whether measured by raw Democratic vote share, average margin across several elections, or by population thresholds — and the 2018–2024 election era shows both persistent Democratic strongholds and erosion in some Hispanic-majority border counties between 2020 and 2024 [1] [2] [3].
1. Why Zavala and other tiny South Texas counties dominate “bluest” lists — and what that actually means
Multiple analysts identify Zavala County as the single most Democratic county in Texas when measured by average Democratic margin across several contests, with an average Democratic margin cited around 42 points across recent statewide and presidential contests. That result reflects Zavala’s small electorate and consistent local Democratic loyalties rather than influence on statewide outcomes, and it appears repeatedly in county-by-county analyses that average margins over 2016–2024 or 2018–2024 [1] [3]. Small-population counties like Zavala, Presidio, Brooks and Jim Hogg show very large Democratic percentages in many cycles, so rankings that emphasize margin or vote share will elevate these rural border counties above populous urban counties despite their tiny vote totals [4] [1].
2. Big cities remain core Democratic anchors, even as margins narrow
Analysts consistently place Travis (Austin), El Paso, Dallas, Harris (Houston) and Webb (Laredo) among Texas’s most Democratic counties by sheer vote volume and repeated Democratic margins, and they are the major anchors for statewide Democratic performance [2] [5]. Travis County stands out among large-counties: when restricting to counties with more than 100,000 registered voters, Travis ranks as the strongest Democratic performer, with an average margin cited near 41.7 points in multi‑cycle comparisons. These urban counties deliver thousands of Democratic votes and remain decisive to statewide margins, even as some showed reduced Democratic margins in 2024 compared with 2020 [1] [6].
3. The 2024 turn in many Rio Grande Valley counties complicates the “most Democratic” story
Several recent analyses emphasize that Hispanic-majority border counties — long Democratic bastions like Hidalgo, Cameron, Willacy, Maverick and Starr — swung toward Republicans in 2024, with Trump carrying a notable number of them and the group overall moving GOP in that cycle. That shift does not erase their past Democratic performance, but it does mean lists of “most Democratic” counties for 2016–2020 differ from those including 2024. Consequently, lists that average multiple cycles or focus on 2018–2022 will highlight border counties more than a list that centers on 2024 results alone [3] [6].
4. Methodology matters: margins, averages, and population thresholds produce different “top” lists
The sources show three common measurement approaches: single‑election vote share, multi‑election average margin, and population‑filtered rankings (e.g., counties >100,000 voters). Small counties like Zavala, Presidio and Jim Hogg dominate pure margin/percentage lists, while Travis, El Paso, Dallas and Harris top lists constrained to large counties because they produce the most Democratic votes. Analysts who average across 2016–2024 or 2018–2024 generally produce similar bluest-county lists, but any one-election snapshot — especially 2024 — reduces the dominance of some border counties and highlights urban trends [1] [2] [3].
5. Reconciling the sources: a concise, evidence-backed list of the most Democratic Texas counties
Synthesizing the cited analyses yields a defensible short list: Zavala, Travis, El Paso, Presidio, Brooks, Jim Hogg, Dallas, Harris, Webb and Hidalgo are repeatedly identified as Texas’s most Democratic counties across different metrics. Zavala and Presidio top margin-based lists; Travis and El Paso top large-county lists; Dallas and Harris are consistent urban Democratic anchors; and Brooks, Jim Hogg and Webb appear on multiple compilations of Democratic strongholds [1] [2] [3]. The exact order depends on whether the metric emphasizes margin, average performance across cycles, or total Democratic votes.
6. What to watch next — trends that will reshape future “bluest county” lists
Future rankings will hinge on whether the 2024 border shift endures and whether metropolitan growth continues to bolster urban Democratic margins. If Republican gains in Hispanic-majority border counties persist, future “most Democratic” lists will increasingly be urban‑centric; if those counties revert, small rural border counties will remain prominent in margin‑based rankings. Analysts should watch county-level turnout and demographic changes, as well as whether party outreach alters margins in mid‑size counties that currently sit between the two poles identified here [6] [3].