Who will be the most likely Democrats candidate for 2028 elections?

1. Why Newsom is the current front-runner: polling, profile, and activity

Multiple trackers and political dispatches show Gavin Newsom consistently at or near the top of Democratic primary polls, and analysts credit his high-profile activism and media presence for elevating him to de facto party leader status—anointing him the front‑runner in much of the early 2026 coverage ^{[3] [2] [1]}. Race-to-the-Wh aggregates and state polling measures place him in either first or a narrow tier with other leading figures, while Politico and The Hill describe his frenetic activity—policy fights and national messaging—as central to why Democrats are talking about Newsom as the natural successor to lead a post‑Trump effort ^{[3] [2] [4]}.

2. The strongest challengers and why they matter

Former vice president Kamala Harris remains a prominent name in the conversation—frequently polling near the top and routinely listed among potential nominees—though some strategists publicly question her viability after 2024 setbacks, leaving room for others ^{[1] [4]}. Governors such as Josh Shapiro and J.B. Pritzker are repeatedly cited by pundits and insiders: Shapiro for electability signals in swing regions and Pritzker as the donor- and war chest-ready prospect highlighted by veteran strategist James Carville ^{[1] [5] [7]}. Progressive figures like Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez are also flagged as viable wildcards with fundraising and organizational muscle, though outlets debate whether a distinctly socialist lane can carry a general election ^{[2] [6]}.

3. Markets, forecasters and the weight of early money

Prediction markets and forecast sites give similar signals: Newsom is often the market favorite, and prediction platforms and political odds trackers list a handful of governors and senators with measurable probabilities—Jon Ossoff, Andy Beshear and others show up in betting markets as mid-range contenders, underscoring that early money and market sentiment back Newsom but keep the door open for surprises ^{[8] [9] [10]}. Political strategists stress that the ability to raise early funds and assemble a national operation—factors Carville called “really important”—tilts advantage to wealthy, well‑connected governors like Newsom and Pritzker ^[5].

4. Structural constraints and wildcards that could change the calculus

The field is not fixed: incumbency dynamics, midterm results, and primary voters’ appetite for ideology vs. electability could re‑rank contenders; for example, a strong 2026 showing by Shapiro or a decisive fundraising surge by Ocasio‑Cortez would recalibrate polling and markets ^{[1] [2]}. Media narratives and elite endorsements matter too—Newsom’s visibility may be as much a product of his aggressive national posture as of durable grassroots support—and veteran operatives sometimes elevate candidates for strategic reasons that reflect donor and institutional preferences rather than raw voter sentiment ^{[2] [5]}.

5. Bottom line: the likeliest nominee and the confidence interval around that call

Based on aggregated polls, forecasters and repeated front‑page narratives across the provided reporting, Gavin Newsom is the single most likely Democratic nominee as of early 2026, but that “most likely” comes with important caveats: a crowded field, unresolved questions about electability after 2024, and the outsized role of money, media coverage and midterm outcomes mean the advantage is lead‑position rather than inevitability ^{[3] [2] [10]}. Other contenders—Harris, Pritzker, Shapiro, Ocasio‑Cortez and Buttigieg—remain plausible front-runners in alternative scenarios, so the coming 18–30 months of fundraising, midterm performance and early primary polling will be decisive ^{[4] [5] [6]}.