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What are the most recent government estimates for undocumented immigrants in the US?
Executive Summary
Government agencies and major research centers disagree on the most recent tally of undocumented immigrants in the United States but converge that the population rose markedly since 2019. Official federal figures most recently cited put the unauthorized population near 11.0 million (DHS/Census-based numbers referenced by analysts), while non‑government research groups report provisional and adjusted estimates ranging from 11.7 million to around 14 million for 2023, reflecting differing data sources, methodologies, and timing [1] [2] [3].
1. Why the Numbers Diverge — A Battle of Surveys, Models and Adjustments
The differing totals stem from which federal survey is used and how researchers adjust for undercounts and migration flows. The Department of Homeland Security and Census-based official presentations historically cite an estimate of about 11.0 million in 2022, a figure highlighted as the most recent formal government count by analysts summarizing DHS and Census outputs [1]. Independent centers like the Center for Migration Studies (CMS), Migration Policy Institute (MPI), and Pew and CIS employ the American Community Survey (ACS), Current Population Survey (CPS), or proprietary adjustments and often apply post‑survey corrections for known undercounts and recent border flows; those methods produce higher provisional totals—11.7 million to 12.8 million in 2023 in several analyses, and even a 14 million figure reported by Pew in later summaries [2] [4] [3]. The dispute is methodological: official counts lean conservative and tied to formal agency releases, while academic centers publish more current, adjusted estimates that incorporate late‑year CPS/ACS data and modeling assumptions.
2. Recent High‑End Estimates and What Drives Them—Border Flows and Demographic Shifts
Analysts reporting larger totals trace most of the 2020–2023 increase to rising arrivals from Central and South America and increases in long‑staying cohorts, not solely to Mexican migration. MPI and CMS analyses indicate the unauthorized population grew by millions between 2019 and 2023, with Central American origin rising sharply and Mexico’s share falling from prior dominance—Mexico remained the top origin but shrank as a share from 62% in 2010 to about 40% in 2023 [5]. CIS and other analysts using the CPS describe increases to 12.6–12.8 million by late 2023 after adjusting for CPS undercount, arguing that recent entry spikes and reduced return migration explain much of the rise [4]. These higher estimates rely on assumptions about net flows and survey undercounts, which materially affect totals when projected across millions of migrants.
3. Official Government Position — Conservative Baselines and Publication Lags
Federal agencies provide the baseline that many analysts call the “official” number, but those figures are dated and conservative because of publication schedules and conservative adjustment rules. The Economic Policy Institute and other summaries point to DHS/Census numbers identifying roughly 11.0 million in 2022 as the latest government figure, which remains the last widely cited agency count [1]. Government releases tend to avoid provisional upward revisions until survey weighting, editing and disclosure avoidance processes are complete; this creates a lag, making federal numbers less responsive to abrupt migration changes. The government approach emphasizes reproducibility and caution; therefore, it can understate near‑term increases reflected in independent provisional estimates.
4. Independent Research Centers — Provisional, Adjusted, and Policy‑Oriented Estimates
Centers such as CMS, MPI, CIS, and Pew publish more current estimates and sometimes broader ranges. CMS produced provisional CPS‑derived estimates of 11.7 million (July 2023) and later reported 12.2 million for 2023 in follow‑up work, while CIS projected 12.6–12.8 million by October 2023 after adjusting CPS for undercounts [2] [6] [4]. Pew later summarized analyses indicating a record 14 million in 2023, reflecting either different adjustment choices or inclusion/exclusion of temporary statuses and modeling decisions [3]. These organizations differ in whether they treat certain temporary arrivals, asylum seekers, and rapid inflows as part of the unauthorized resident stock; their choices reveal divergent policy and research priorities—some aim to capture short‑term population dynamics, others to measure long‑term resident stocks.
5. What Readers Should Take Away — Numbers Are Estimates, Not Certainties
The most defensible conclusion is that undocumented population estimates for 2023 vary across credible sources—from roughly 11 million on the official government baseline to as high as 14 million in some independent summaries—because of data source choice and methodological adjustments [1] [2] [3]. Parsing policy implications requires noting these drivers: federal counts are conservative and lagged, while academic and policy centers publish provisional, adjusted figures that respond faster to migration shocks. Analysts and policymakers must therefore state clearly which series they cite and why, since policy debates hinge on whether one uses the government baseline or adjusted research estimates that account for undercounts and recent flows.