Fact check: What are the most republican counties in Maryland?

Executive summary — Quick answer up front: The data provided identify Carroll, Allegany, Cecil, Garrett, and Harford among Maryland’s most Republican counties by either raw registered Republican totals or by 2024 vote counts, with Worcester and Somerset appearing in some lists depending on the metric. Registration lists point to Carroll and Harford as having the largest Republican enrollments, while 2024 election returns credit Allegany, Carroll, Cecil, Garrett, and Harford as top Republican vote-producing counties; different sources and metrics produce slightly different top-five lists ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

1. What the sources claim — Pulling the headline assertions together: The assembled analyses offer overlapping but not identical claims about Maryland’s most Republican counties. Voter registration data assert Carroll, Cecil, Garrett, Allegany, and Harford lead in registered Republicans by raw counts ^[1]. Election-return oriented reporting from November 2024 lists Allegany, Carroll, Cecil, Garrett, and Harford as the counties where Donald Trump received the largest vote totals or strongest Republican performance in 2024 ^{[2] [4]}. A 2022 breakdown focused on percent Republican flags Allegany, Carroll, Cecil, Garrett, and Worcester as the most Republican by percentage, emphasizing that metric’s divergence from raw totals ^[3]. These claims are consistent in identifying a core set of rural western and upper-eastern counties while diverging on whether Worcester or Harford occupies the final slot depending on whether percentage, raw registration, or raw vote totals are used ^{[1] [3] [2]}.

2. Registration vs. votes — Why different lists emerge: The difference between lists flows from metric choice. Registration counts measure party enrollment and thus highlight counties with large Republican bases by headcount — that favors populous exurbs like Harford and Carroll ^[1]. Vote totals from the 2024 presidential contest show where Trump won the most votes or margins, producing a top-five that emphasizes counties where turnout and intensity aligned for Republicans, including Allegany and Cecil ^{[2] [4]}. Percentage-based measures rank counties by share of votes or share of registration for Republicans, putting small, heavily red counties such as Worcester or Allegany higher even if their raw numbers are modest ^[3]. These methodological choices explain why Carroll, Allegany, Cecil, Garrett, Harford, and Worcester each appear in different “most Republican” lists depending on whether analysts prioritize raw registration, raw vote totals, or percent Republican ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

3. Recent shifts and county swings — Where Republican strength moved in 2024: Analysts noted shifts toward Republicans in some traditionally blue counties during the 2024 cycle; Kent and Talbot reportedly flipped to Trump by nearly 1,000 votes each in 2024, signaling emerging Republican gains in certain Eastern Shore or rural tidewater areas ^[4]. Post-2024 analysis identified Cecil and Somerset among the counties that swung most toward Trump, with Cecil gaining about 4.1 points and Somerset roughly 4 points relative to the prior baseline, while Garrett slightly moved away from Trump by a little over a point ^[5]. These data show both consolidation in core Republican counties and movement in peripheral or previously competitive counties, underscoring that the Republican map in Maryland is shaped by both stable rural bases and volatile small-jurisdiction swings ^{[4] [5]}.

4. Contrasting national metrics — Where Cook PVI and congressional districts complicate the picture: Statewide partisanship indices frame Maryland as solidly Democratic overall but highlight Republican pockets. The Cook Partisan Voting Index gives Maryland a D+15 rating while marking the 1st congressional district as R+8, reflecting localized Republican strength on the Eastern Shore and western counties even as the state leans heavily Democratic in metropolitan Baltimore–Washington regions ^[6]. Analysts emphasize that Republicans win many of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions in some cycles (e.g., Trump won 14 counties in 2020), yet Democratic dominance in high-population jurisdictions neutralizes those county-level Republican margins in statewide totals ^{[7] [8]}. The juxtaposition of county-level Republican wins with overwhelming Democratic votes in population centers explains why Maryland can produce Republican county maps while remaining a reliably Democratic state overall ^{[6] [8]}.

5. Bottom line — What to state if asked “most Republican counties”: If the question seeks most Republican by registration, cite Carroll and Harford atop lists with Cecil, Garrett, and Allegany commonly following; if the question seeks most Republican by 2024 vote totals, cite Allegany, Carroll, Cecil, Garrett, and Harford; if the question seeks highest Republican share, include Allegany and Worcester among the leaders ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Different sources and dates (registration snapshots, 2024 vote returns, 2022 gubernatorial maps) produce slight variations, and analysts flag method choice and turnout as the key reasons for divergent lists — an important caveat for any firm claim about “most Republican” counties ^{[1] [2] [3] [5]}.