How many illegal immigrants voted in the 2024 election
Executive summary
Available reporting and public-data reviews show no evidence that large numbers of unauthorized immigrants voted in the 2024 U.S. general election; documented or prosecuted cases are counted in the dozens, not thousands or millions (migrationpolicy.org; Brennan Center reporting summarized by BBC) [1] [2]. State referrals and prosecutions after 2024 total small numbers — for example, Texas announced investigations into 33 potential noncitizen voters and Wisconsin clerks referred 46 fraud/irregularity cases tied to the general election period — but those figures do not prove widespread illegal voting by noncitizens [3] [4].
1. What the data and audits actually show: rare, scattered incidents
Multiple audits, academic reviews and journalistic summaries conclude that noncitizen voting in federal elections is extremely rare; the Migration Policy Institute states there is no evidence that unauthorized immigrants voted in significant numbers and that audits reflect such fraud is “extremely rare” [1]. The BBC summarized past studies showing only tiny fractions of votes tied to suspected noncitizen participation — for example, a Brennan Center review found roughly 30 suspected incidents among 23.5 million votes in certain states in 2016, about 0.0001% [2].
2. Post‑2024 referrals and investigations: small numbers, different meanings
After the 2024 election some state officials reported referrals or opened probes. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said his office opened investigations into 33 potential noncitizens who allegedly voted after receiving a referral from the Texas secretary of state [3]. In Wisconsin, clerks referred 46 cases of suspected fraud or irregularities relating to the 2024 presidential contest among a broader set of 127 referrals across election cycles [4]. These are referrals and investigations, not proof of mass illegal voting; they show how officials respond to possible irregularities [3] [4].
3. Why large numerical claims have been disputed
Claims that millions of noncitizens voted in 2024 trace back to extrapolations and contested studies amplified by partisan messages; the BBC and other fact-checkers documented conservative‑aligned posts and RNC mailings that cited studies suggesting 1.0–2.7 million noncitizen voters, but mainstream analyses and official audits do not support such totals [5] [2]. Nonprofit analysts and academic commentators — including Cato Institute, American Immigration Council and the Heritage database reviewers — note the Heritage Foundation and some groups compile dozens to a few hundred proven cases over decades, not millions [6] [7] [8].
4. Proven cases versus referrals and administrative flags
There is a critical distinction between administrative flags on voter rolls, criminal convictions, and mere referral counts. Heritage and other trackers list fewer than a few hundred proven instances of noncitizen registration or voting over decades; the American Immigration Council emphasized the rarity of proven noncitizen voting even using pro‑fraud databases [6]. State use of databases like SAVE can generate hundreds or thousands of flagged records during list maintenance without each flag proving an illegal vote; the press and politicians sometimes conflate flags, referrals and convictions [3] [9].
5. Competing motivations and political dynamics shaping the narrative
Prominent politicians and partisan actors have repeatedly advanced the claim that “a lot” of noncitizens vote; critics and fact‑checkers argue those claims are used to justify proof‑of‑citizenship rules and to stoke doubts about election outcomes [10] [7]. Think tanks, political campaigns and state officials each have incentives — whether to tighten voting rules or to defend election access — and those agendas shape which numbers are emphasized and how administrative data are presented [7] [9].
6. Limitations of available reporting and what remains unknown
Available sources do not provide a single, definitive nationwide tally of noncitizen votes in 2024; reporting instead offers snapshots — referrals, investigations, prosecutions and aggregated research — that point to rarity rather than mass fraud [1] [4] [3]. National claims that millions voted illegally are not supported by the audits and studies cited in mainstream reporting; conversely, isolated documented cases (and prosecutions like those publicized by state officials) show the problem exists but at very small scale relative to total ballots cast [6] [11].
7. Bottom line for readers
Current, credible reporting and institutional analyses show noncitizen voting in federal elections is extremely rare and that post‑2024 state investigations involve small numbers of referrals or suspected cases — dozens in highlighted examples — not the large-scale, election‑deciding waves that some political messages have claimed [1] [3] [4]. Readers should treat broad extrapolations and partisan mailings with skepticism and prefer audit‑level findings and prosecutorial outcomes when assessing the scale of illegal voting [2] [6].