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How does the November 4 2025 turnout compare to the 2020 and 2022 midterm turnout percentages?
Executive summary
The available analyses offer conflicting reports about the November 4, 2025 turnout but agree it was substantially lower than recent presidential years and below the unusually high midterm activity seen in the early 2020s. The November 4, 2025 turnout is reported variously as 38.35% [1] and 39.6% [2] while other records list the figure as TBD [3]; by contrast, national turnout in the 2020 presidential election is reported between 63–66% in the dataset [1] [4], and 2022 midterm turnout figures are reported at 46.8–52.2% across sources [5] [4]. These discrepancies signal differences in scope (special election vs. statewide general), measurement (eligible voters vs. registered voters), and reporting timing that must be resolved before a single definitive comparison can be stated [1] [3] [2] [5] [4].
1. Conflicting tallies: Why November 4, 2025 turnout numbers diverge and what each figure likely represents
The dataset contains at least three different representations of November 4, 2025 turnout: a precise 38.35% value [1], a 39.6% figure tied to a special election [2], and a record labeled TBD [3]. These differences reflect distinct reporting streams and possibly different jurisdictions—one source explicitly covers a Special Election in Clackamas County [2], while another labels statewide data as pending [3]. The 38.35% figure likely represents a consolidated estimate for the November 4 general election in a particular dataset [1], but without metadata on whether percentages use voting-eligible population or registered voters the numbers are not directly comparable. Resolving the divergence requires clarifying the geographic scope and denominator each source uses [1] [3] [2].
2. 2020 and 2022 benchmarks: Highs that set the comparison bar
The supplied materials show the 2020 presidential election turnout in the low-to-mid 60s percent, reported as about 63.1% in one place and 66.3% in another [1] [4]. Those figures reflect the national surge in presidential participation that set new modern standards. For midterms, the 2022 turnout is reported inconsistently as 46.8% in one source [5] and 52.2% in another [4], reflecting methodological differences—some reports use voting-eligible population while others may use registered voters or different aggregation windows. Analysts in the dataset note that the last two midterms had unusually high turnout relative to historical norms, and 2022 was among the higher midterm turnouts in recent decades [6] [4]. Those midterm baselines are therefore higher than older midterm norms and are the relevant yardstick for November 4, 2025 comparisons.
3. Direct comparisons: How November 4, 2025 stacks up against 2020 and 2022 using each reported pair
If one uses the 38.35% November 4 figure [1] against the lower-end 2020 presidential turnout (~63%) and midterm (~46.8%), November 4, 2025 is substantially lower—about 25 percentage points below 2020 and roughly 8–9 points below the lower-midterm estimate. If one uses the 39.6% special-election figure [2] the gap is similar. Against the higher midterm estimate of 52.2% [4], the November 2025 figure would be about 12–13 points lower, indicating a clear decline from the energized midterm levels of the early 2020s. These arithmetic contrasts are straightforward but rest on unmatched denominators; they show direction and magnitude but not final authoritative statements without harmonized definitions [1] [2] [5] [4].
4. Why methodological clarity matters: Eligible voters, registered voters, and special versus general elections
The dataset flags methodological issues repeatedly: some items list turnout as TBD [3], others report special-election tallies [2], and different sources cite midterm and presidential turnout using different bases [5] [4]. Turnout measured as a share of the voting-eligible population will be lower than a share of registered voters in the same election; likewise, a county special election typically draws lower participation than a national general election. The result is that numerical comparisons across sources can mislead when scope and denominators are not matched. Any authoritative comparison requires confirming whether each percentage refers to eligible voters vs. registered, the geographic unit, and whether the November 4 figure covers a special local contest or the full general election [1] [3] [2] [4].
5. Bottom line and what to check next before drawing a definitive conclusion
Based on the provided analyses, November 4, 2025 turnout was markedly lower than recent presidential turnout and lower than the elevated midterm levels of 2022, wherever 2025 is reported as 38–40% versus midterm estimates of roughly 47–52% [1] [2] [5] [4]. The primary outstanding issues are which jurisdiction each November 2025 percentage covers and whether metrics use eligible or registered voters; sources that list TBD [3] underscore that official finalization may still be pending. To finalize a definitive comparison, obtain the certified November 4, 2025 statewide/ national turnout figure with clear denominator metadata and then align it with consistently defined 2020 and 2022 benchmarks [3] [4].