What is the number of illegal canadians in america

1. What claim sets we pulled from the materials and why they clash

The input materials advance three distinct claim types: one media report asserts around 100,000 Canadians live “under the radar” in the U.S. ^[2], federal and border‑sector encounter tallies emphasize sharp recent increases in northern border encounters but do not isolate Canadian nationals ^[4], and demographic research and fact‑checks place the unauthorized Canadian population between roughly 57,000 and 100,000 depending on methodology and year ^{[5] [1]}. These claims clash because some figures measure residency (undocumented residents), others count visa overstays in a single year, and still others report border encounters that may include non‑Canadians or repeat encounters; the difference in what is being counted explains the apparent contradiction between claims ^{[4] [1] [2]}.

2. The headline estimates — what each source actually reports

Pew Research and Migration Policy Institute–style demographic work is represented in the fact‑check summary that estimates about 57,000 unauthorized Canadian residents as of 2018 and earlier Pew estimates near 80,000–100,000 in mid‑decade years; a PolitiFact review summarizes this spread and notes a margin of uncertainty ^{[5] [1]}. A National Post piece and other reporting cite ~100,000 Canadians living “under the radar”, and a Department of Homeland Security visa‑overstay table for 2017 identified nearly 93,000 Canadian overstays that year, which is a flow statistic not identical to the stock of undocumented long‑term residents ^{[2] [3]}. Border encounter totals for fiscal 2024 show much larger increases in northern border activity — nearly 199,000 encounters across the northern border in 2024 — but those counts do not translate directly into a discrete count of Canadians living without authorization ^[4].

3. Why methodology and timeframe drive different numbers

Demographic stock estimates of unauthorized residents use census, survey, and administrative back‑calculation methods and therefore produce lower, smoother estimates (e.g., 57,000–100,000 depending on year and model) ^{[5] [1]}. By contrast, visa‑overstay tallies or CBP encounter statistics are annual flow or contact measures and can spike due to single‑year patterns like concentrated overstays or repeat entries, producing higher headline numbers like 93,000 overstays in 2017 or 199,000 northern border encounters in 2024 that do not equal the permanent undocumented population ^{[3] [4]}. The difference between overstays, encounters, and long‑term undocumented residency is the primary reason figures diverge across sources ^{[4] [1]}.

4. Where the gaps and uncertainties remain in the public record

No single source in the set provides an unequivocal, up‑to‑date census‑style count of Canadians currently residing illegally in the U.S.; estimates depend on modeling choices, the reference year, and whether temporary overstayers or repeat border encounters are included ^{[5] [4]}. Media stories may emphasize higher figures either to highlight trends or to dramatize particular enforcement narratives, while academic demographers tend toward lower, model‑based estimates; both approaches are factually defensible within their scopes but often omit crosswalks that would let readers convert flows into stocks ^{[2] [5]}. This leaves policymakers and the public with a credible range rather than a single precise number ^[1].

5. Bottom line answer and what to watch next

Summarizing the evidence in these analyses: the number of Canadians living in the U.S. without authorization is best expressed as a range in the tens of thousands — roughly 57,000 to about 100,000 depending on year and method; separate counts of visa overstays and border encounters can be much higher but measure different phenomena ^{[5] [1] [2] [4]}. Watch for updated demographic estimates from Migration Policy Institute, Pew Research Center, and DHS stock‑and‑flow tables, and note that future year‑to‑year spikes in northern border encounters will not automatically mean an equivalent increase in long‑term unauthorized Canadian residents ^{[4] [1]}.