How many independent voters are there, and how many voted Republican?

1. How many independents are there—registered vs. self‑identified?

State registration tallies place independents/unaffiliated at roughly 32–34 million registered voters: USAFacts reports 34.3 million voters with no affiliation or registered as independents (registration data compiled from states) ^[1], Ballotpedia lists about 33.7 million unaffiliated/independent registrants in the jurisdictions that report party registration ^[2], and local summaries cluster near roughly 32 million in recent compilations ^[5]. By contrast, national public‑opinion polling shows a larger cohort when measured by self‑identification: Gallup and Pew report that about 41–45% of U.S. adults identify as independents or “something else” – a percentage that translates into a much larger pool of potential independent voters than registration figures alone indicate ^{[3] [6]}.

2. Why those two different numbers matter for the question being asked

Registered‑voter counts reflect formal election files in states that collect party data and are the clearest headcount for “independent” voters on the rolls; self‑identification polls measure political identity and capture leaners who do not register with a party but often vote consistent with a party ^{[1] [6]}. Analysts therefore routinely distinguish registered independents (the ~32–34M figure) from the broader cohort of self‑identified independents (the ~40–45% of adults), because the former is concrete and administrative while the latter better reflects attitudes and “leaning” behavior ^{[2] [3]}.

3. How many independents voted Republican in 2024—what the reporting supports

Polling and post‑election analysis show independents were roughly evenly split in the 2024 presidential race: Pew‑summarized reporting cited by multiple outlets found independents who voted in 2024 were about 48% for Trump and 48% for Harris, indicating a near‑even split among those who actually turned out ^[4]. Using the registration range (~32–34M) and that roughly half of voting independents chose the Republican, a straightforward, supported estimate is that approximately 16–17 million registered independents voted Republican in 2024; this is an estimate because turnout and the mix of registered vs. self‑identified independents vary by state and subgroup ^{[1] [4]}.

4. Nuances and caveats—leaners, turnout and measurement limitations

Survey and exit‑poll measures complicate any single headline number: many Americans who say they are “independent” actually “lean” to one party (Pew reports a substantial share of independents are leaners, e.g., about 15% of voters lean Republican and 16% lean Democratic in the broader electorate), and Republican‑leaning independents overwhelmingly supported the GOP nominee in 2024 (92% of Republicans and Republican‑leaning independents voted for Trump, per Pew’s post‑2024 analysis) ^{[7] [8]}. Because registration files differ by state (some states don’t record party on registration) and because turnout varies dramatically across subgroups, any arithmetic that multiplies a national registration count by exit‑poll percentages must be treated as an informed estimate rather than a precise census ^{[1] [8]}.

5. Bottom line

The best available administrative counts put registered independents/unaffiliated at roughly 32–34 million (USAFacts, Ballotpedia and state summaries) ^{[1] [2] [5]}; post‑2024 voting and polling evidence indicates independents split about evenly in the presidential race, implying roughly half of those independents who voted chose the Republican — on the order of 16–17 million votes by that simple, data‑backed estimate — while recognizing turnout, “leaner” status and state reporting differences prevent a single definitive national tally ^{[4] [8] [7]}.