How many illegals have self deported
Executive summary
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has repeatedly reported that between roughly 1.6 million and 1.9 million people “self‑deported” from the United States since January 20, 2025, a figure the department has folded into headline totals of more than 2 million people leaving the country [1] [2] [3]. Independent reporting and analysts warn that those self‑deportation figures are estimates produced with unconventional methods — including a government app and survey data — and should not be conflated with formal ICE removals or routinely audited deportation statistics [4] [5] [6].
1. What DHS is claiming: 1.6–1.9 million voluntary departures counted as “self‑deported”
DHS press statements across 2025 and into late 2025 have presented a running total of people who have left the country, distinguishing formal deportations (hundreds of thousands) from “self‑deported” departures, with specific tallies reported as about 1.6 million in August and September and as high as 1.9 million by December, contributing to claims that more than 2 million or 2.5 million people have departed overall [7] [1] [2] [3].
2. How DHS appears to build that number: app, incentives, surveys and modeling
The department has pointed to tools such as the rebranded CBP Home app — which the administration promoted as a way for people to “notify” intent to depart and to secure travel assistance and a cash stipend — and to internal surveys and other data to estimate voluntary departures, rather than relying solely on ICE removal records or border return counts [2] [8] [4]. DHS has not published a consolidated, line‑by‑line methodology in the releases cited here, and some media accounts say the agency relied in part on USCIS and survey extrapolations to reach its headline self‑deportation totals [6] [4].
3. The contrast with formal deportation/removal numbers
By contrast, ICE and other enforcement figures tracked by outlets show far smaller, concrete “removals” or deportations: for example, ICE reported deportations and removals in the hundreds of thousands (with specific figures such as about 527,000 or roughly 600,000 removals cited in DHS releases), and independent FOIA data analyzed by Newsweek found far lower counts of ICE deportations from detention centers for the early months of the period [2] [9] [5]. Analysts therefore distinguish between verifiable removals (paper‑trail deportations and returns) and broader estimates of voluntary departures.
4. Independent scrutiny and skepticism about the estimate
Journalists and migration experts have flagged the DHS approach as “unorthodox” and urged caution: Axios reported that experts consider the self‑deportation survey estimates shaky and warned that changes in survey response rates or other modeling choices could substantially shift the number [4]. Newsweek’s reporting also noted gaps — for example, it remains unclear how many departures counted as voluntary used the CBP Home app versus left without notifying authorities — casting doubt on whether DHS’s headline totals reflect verifiable government‑facilitated departures or broader population‑change estimates [5].
5. Context: why the distinction matters
The difference between formal deportations and DHS’s “self‑deported” estimate matters for policy, legal oversight and public debate because removals are documented agency actions while self‑deportation estimates mix programmatic departures, incentivized flights and modeled population declines; treating them interchangeably can overstate the number of government‑executed expulsions and mask the estimation methods involved [4] [6].
6. Bottom line and limits of reporting
Answering the question directly: DHS has reported that between about 1.6 million and 1.9 million people “self‑deported” since January 20, 2025, depending on the release, and these figures are part of cumulative totals DHS has promoted as 2 million-plus departures [7] [1] [3]. However, these are agency estimates built from app usage, surveys and internal modeling rather than solely from deportation paperwork, and independent observers and journalists have raised methodological concerns and noted that ICE’s verifiable removal numbers are far lower [4] [5]. The sources provided do not include a full DHS technical breakdown that would allow an independent verification of the exact count methodology; reporting must therefore treat the self‑deportation figure as DHS’s estimate, not an uncontested measurement [6] [4].