How many undocumented are in the usa unauthorized according to dhs?
Executive summary
The Department of Homeland Security’s statistical office (OHSS/OIS) has historically produced “unauthorized immigrant” population estimates and, in its most-cited recent figures, the agency’s estimate for January 1, 2022 is roughly 11.0 million people (as reported and cited by secondary analyses) [1] [2]. DHS uses administrative records combined with the residual method to derive those counts, a methodology that other researchers both use and critique [1] [3].
1. What DHS officially counts and when: a technical snapshot
DHS’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics publishes annual tables and population estimates that are explicitly designed to count the unauthorized (aka undocumented/illegal alien) population as of January 1 each year and to compile related enforcement and legal data [1] [4]. These DHS administrative series form the backbone of many downstream estimates because they combine counts of lawful admissions with survey totals to estimate the “residual” unauthorized population [1] [3].
2. The number most often attributed to DHS: about 11.0 million (Jan 1, 2022)
Analyses drawing on DHS data report that DHS’s estimate of the unauthorized population was roughly 11.0 million around January 1, 2022; that DHS figure is cited repeatedly in policy and academic summaries as the agency’s official recent baseline [2]. Other summaries and fact sheets point back to DHS administrative records as the source for those counts even when alternative organizations publish slightly different totals [5] [6].
3. Why numbers differ across reputable sources: method and timing
DHS’s residual estimation approach subtracts legally resident foreign-born totals (from administrative data) from total foreign-born counts (from household surveys) to infer the unauthorized share, a method that produces different year-to-year estimates depending on the vintage of administrative inputs, survey timing, and adjustments for undercounts [3] [1]. Outside groups—Pew, the Center for Migration Studies, Migration Policy Institute, Congressional Budget Office and others—use similar methods but different inputs or cut-off dates and therefore report divergent but overlapping estimates [7] [5] [8].
4. Alternative estimates and recent higher or lower tallies
Independent and advocacy groups have produced varying estimates: Pew and other researchers put the unauthorized population near 10.5 million in 2021 [6], while later non-governmental tallies and media summaries have reported higher totals—some citing administrative flows through late 2024 and provisional calculations that point to larger counts in subsequent years [7] [5]. These higher figures reflect new administrative data on releases, parolees, and border encounters that post-date DHS’s January annual estimates [7].
5. Political claims versus statistical series: recent DHS press statements
Recent DHS press releases under a new administration have announced very large declines in “illegal alien” populations—claims that 1.6 million or more than 2.5 million people “left” the country tied to enforcement operations—statements that are political announcements and not the same as the OHSS statistical population series produced by DHS statisticians [9] [10]. Those operational claims require different documentation and are not presented in the same methodological framework as OHSS’s residual population estimates [1] [4].
6. Bottom line and limitations of the record
The best direct answer, based on DHS’s published OHSS/OIS series commonly cited by researchers, is that DHS’s estimate for the unauthorized population around January 1, 2022 is about 11.0 million [1] [2]. That figure is an administrative-survey based estimate with well-documented methodological caveats and timing constraints; more recent provisional counts and independent analyses may produce higher or lower totals depending on data through late 2024 and differing assumptions [7] [3]. Where DHS has offered politically framed operational tallies of departures or removals, those statements are distinct from the OHSS statistical population estimate and should not be conflated without matching methodological detail [9] [10].