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Fact check: What was the population ratio of Palestinians to Jews in the British Mandate for Palestine in the 1940s?
Executive Summary
The best contemporary estimates for the British Mandate’s population in the mid-1940s show a Palestinian (Arab) majority over the Jewish population, but the exact ratio varies by source and method. Using widely cited 1945–1946 tallies, the Palestinian-to-Jewish ratio ranges roughly from 1.5:1 to 1.9:1, depending on whether one uses the UN working paper’s 1946 breakdown or the 1945 Village Statistics [1] [2]. These differences reflect divergent counting methods, definitions of “Palestinian,” and inclusion/exclusion of non-Muslim Arab communities and recent Jewish immigration.
1. Why historians still argue over the numbers — methodology drives the headline
Differences in quoted ratios stem primarily from counting methods and definitions used by contemporaneous and later studies. Some reports treat “Palestinians” as the sum of Muslims and Christians; others focus on Muslims alone or combine “others” differently. The 1949 UNCCP working paper gives a 1946 estimate listing 1,845,560 total with 894,570 Muslims and 608,230 Jews, which yields roughly 1.47:1 if counting Muslims only, and about 1.18:1 if including all non-Jewish groups differently [1]. The 1945 Village Statistics and alternate UN iterations produce higher Palestinian shares by grouping population categories differently and using distinct enumeration bases [2] [1]. These methodological choices explain most of the variation among respected sources.
2. The mid-1940s UN tallies: a commonly cited baseline and its variants
The UN’s postwar working papers remain a key baseline because they attempted comprehensive, contemporary estimates. One UN working paper cited for 1946 gives totals of 1,076,780 Muslims, 608,230 Jews, and 145,060 Christians, producing a Palestinian (Muslim+Christian) to Jewish ratio close to 1.77:1 [1]. Another UN-related breakdown in the provided materials lists a total population of 1,845,560 with 894,570 Muslims and 608,230 Jews, which when interpreted differently yields a ≈1.47:1 Muslim-to-Jew ratio [1]. These UN figures are widely used, but their different published tables and working-paper variants require careful attention to which column or year a reader cites.
3. The 1945 Village Statistics: higher Palestinian share and why it matters
The 1945 Village Statistics, frequently cited in demographic debates, estimated a total population of 1,764,520 with 1,061,270 Muslims, 553,600 Jews, and 135,550 Christians, which implies a Palestinian (Muslim+Christian) to Jewish ratio of about 1.92:1 [2]. This higher ratio reflects the Village Statistics’ reliance on on-the-ground village registers and a 1945 snapshot before the large 1946–1948 demographic shifts linked to wartime migration and political turmoil. Scholars favoring the Village Statistics stress its granular local data and timing immediately after World War II; critics note potential undercounting of some urban or transient Jewish populations and disagreement over classification.
4. Contemporary and retrospective studies: consistency and divergence
Later demographic analyses and historical overviews underline consistent trends—a Palestinian plurality/majority throughout the 1940s—but they diverge on the narrow numeric ratio. One retrospective UN-related compilation used in 1949 working papers lists clear Muslim majorities that translate into roughly 1.5–1.8 Palestinians per Jew, depending on which year and dataset are cited [1]. Other modern summaries of 1941–1946 figures highlight earlier Jewish population counts like 488,600 in 1941 representing 31.2% of the “settled” population, a different measure that complicates direct ratio calculations across years [3]. These discrepancies are not errors so much as different analytical lenses.
5. Who counts as “Palestinian” — and why that changes ratios
A central source of variation is the definition of Palestinian: some sources equate Palestinians with Muslims alone, others include Christians and smaller groups; Jewish immigrants arriving in late 1940s censuses further muddle the baseline. For instance, some 1946 tables emphasize Muslims numerically, producing lower Palestinian-to-Jewish ratios when Christians are treated separately; the Village Statistics treated Christians and Muslims together, yielding higher ratios [2] [1]. Analysts’ choices about whether to include Bedouin, unregistered residents, and recent immigrants directly affect the computed ratio and the political implications drawn from it.
6. What the range means for historical interpretation and debates
The numeric spread—from roughly 1.5:1 to 1.9:1 Palestinian-to-Jewish—matters differently to different audiences: demographic historians view it as part of a broader population trend, while political historians use the numbers to assess claims about majority rule, immigration policy, and partition proposals. The underlying documents (UN working papers, Village Statistics, contemporary studies) are consistent in showing a Palestinian majority, but every quoted ratio must be read with its dataset, publication year, and classification choices in mind [1] [2] [3].
7. Bottom line — a qualified numeric answer and the caution readers should keep
If one must state a concise ratio for the 1940s Mandate period using commonly cited mid-1940s sources, the defensible range is approximately 1.5:1 to 1.9:1 Palestinians per Jew, with many authoritative UN and Village Statistics figures clustering around 1.7–1.9:1 when Christians are included as Palestinians and 1.5:1 when only Muslims are counted [1] [2]. Readers should treat any single figure as a summary dependent on definition and year and consult the specific table or report when using the number for scholarly or policy arguments.