Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: How many Palestinian casualties have been reported in the conflict since 2020?
Executive Summary
Since 2020, conflict-related Palestinian casualties were relatively low through 2020 but rose dramatically after 7 October 2023, and reporting institutions offer divergent totals. Official statements and humanitarian agencies recorded tens of thousands of deaths in Gaza between late 2023 and mid–late 2025, with counts ranging from roughly 45,000 by end-2024 to 64,000–67,000+ by September 2025, and hundreds of thousands injured or displaced [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]. Below I extract claims, compare timelines, and explain why figures differ.
1. What the sources actually claim — a quick inventory that matters
The dataset shows three reporting patterns: pre-2023 baseline context, post-October-2023 surge figures, and later aggregates that revise totals upward. Early-year reporting described relatively low conflict fatalities in 2020, citing 24 Palestinians killed in Gaza/West Bank between January and September 2020 and reduced violence overall [1] [6]. By contrast, post-October-2023 tallies from Gaza health authorities and humanitarian agencies report mass casualties: a Gaza Ministry of Health brief reported more than 45,000 killed and about 11,000 missing by end-2024 [2], while UN-linked and humanitarian updates in 2025 cite over 64,000–67,000 killed and 160,000+ injured since 7 October 2023 [3] [4] [5]. These are the central claims in the material provided.
2. Timeline contrast — low years, then an abrupt escalation
The materials establish a clear timeline: 2020 was comparatively calm by the metrics quoted, with humanitarian reports focused on needs and services rather than mass fatalities [6] [1]. The critical inflection point is 7 October 2023, after which multiple organizations recorded dramatically higher casualty totals concentrated in Gaza. Subsequent reporting across 2024 and 2025 shows successive upward revisions as the crisis continued and data collection evolved [2] [3] [4] [5]. The contrast between pre- and post-October-2023 figures is the defining feature of the dataset.
3. Divergent totals — why one source says 45,000 and others 64–67,000+
Different numbers reflect reporting dates, institutional sources, scope and methodology. The Ministry of Health brief cited in the dataset gives “more than 45,000” by end-2024 and notes ~11,000 missing [2]. By mid–late 2025, humanitarian agencies and UN-linked updates cite 64,000–67,000+ deaths in Gaza since 7 October 2023, plus large injury counts [3] [4] [5]. The later, larger totals correspond to ongoing hostilities, delayed reporting, and aggregation by agencies that compile ministry figures with field-monitoring and hospital data. Dates are crucial: end-2024 vs. September 2025 explains much of the numerical gap.
4. Injuries, missing persons and displaced people — the broader human toll
Beyond fatalities, the sources highlight substantial non-fatal harms: OCHA-cited figures point to more than 160,000 injured in Gaza since October 2023, and population-monitoring notes mass displacement with roughly 2.1 million people living in Gaza as of September 2025 [3] [7]. The Gaza Ministry of Health material also flagged ~11,000 missing by end-2024 [2]. These figures underscore that fatalities are one metric among many; the humanitarian crisis includes injuries, disappearances, and massive displacement that amplify the long-term consequences.
5. Source provenance and potential agendas — what to watch for in the numbers
All sources carry institutional positions and potential biases: Gaza health ministry numbers reflect direct local reporting but may be influenced by access and political context; UN and humanitarian figures synthesize field data and partner inputs, sometimes producing higher or more conservative aggregates depending on verification standards [2] [3] [4]. Pre-2023 humanitarian reports focused on needs and service disruption rather than casualty totals [6] [1]. Readers should evaluate date of publication, who compiled the count, geographic scope (Gaza only vs. Gaza+West Bank), and whether missing persons are included.
6. Reconciling the data — a cautious synthesis for readers
Based on the provided materials, the most defensible summary is: from 2020 through early October 2023, Palestinian conflict deaths were relatively limited compared with the later surge; after 7 October 2023, multiple agencies report tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths concentrated in Gaza. The range in official tallies runs from ~45,000 by end-2024 (Gaza Ministry of Health briefing) to 64,000–67,000+ by September 2025 (UN/humanitarian updates), with hundreds of thousands injured or displaced according to OCHA and related updates [2] [3] [4] [5].
7. What’s still uncertain and where to look next
Uncertainties remain about precise cumulative totals, reconciliation of missing-persons lists, and how counts include West Bank casualties. Future clarity will come from continued aggregated reporting by UN OCHA, cross-checks between Gaza health authorities and independent monitors, and publication dates that capture evolving ground realities [3] [7] [2]. For readers seeking an exact number, note the date and compiler—the same subject can legitimately have different totals depending on when and how the data were compiled [1] [5].