What percentage of eligible voters voted for Trump in 2024
Executive summary
Donald Trump received about 49.8% of the votes cast in the 2024 presidential election, and roughly two-thirds of the voting-eligible population cast ballots in that contest; combining those figures yields an estimate that about 31–33% of eligible voters cast ballots for Trump in 2024, depending on which turnout measure one uses (Ballotpedia, Pew, Census) [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. How the headline percent is calculated — votes cast versus the eligible population
Election reporting typically quotes a candidate’s share of the vote (Trump 49.8%) and a turnout rate among the voting-eligible population; to translate into “percent of eligible voters who voted for Trump” one multiplies turnout by the candidate’s vote share among ballots cast — a straightforward arithmetic step that depends on which turnout denominator is chosen [1] [2] [3].
2. Which turnout numbers the media and data projects report and why they differ
Different authorities report slightly different turnout rates: Ballotpedia’s synthesis put overall turnout of eligible voters in 2024 at about 63.7% [2], Pew Research Center and related analyses commonly cite a 64% turnout among the voting-eligible population [3], while the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey reports a 65.3% turnout rate (voting-age population measures and CPS methodology differ from VEP calculations) [4]. Election Lab at University of Florida flags that states report different metrics (total ballots counted versus votes for president) and that national VEP/VAP calculations are adjusted as state data are certified, which helps explain small discrepancies between sources [5].
3. The arithmetic and the resulting headline: roughly one-third of eligible voters
Using the common figures yields a narrow range: 63.7% turnout × 49.8% Trump vote = ~31.7% of eligible voters; 64% × 49.8% ≈ 31.9%; 65.3% × 49.8% ≈ 32.5% — all of which round to about 32% of eligible voters casting ballots for Trump. Stated plainly, while Trump won a plurality of ballots cast (and the popular vote by about 1.5 points), only about a third of the eligible electorate actually voted for him, reflecting the arithmetic gap between vote share and share of the total eligible population [2] [3] [4] [1].
4. Important caveats and alternative measures that change the picture
This estimate rests on two inputs — vote share (49.8%) and turnout — each with nuance: the reported 49.8% is Trump’s share of votes counted for president and excludes undervotes and some third‑party ballots, and turnout can be measured as a share of the voting-eligible population (VEP), the voting-age population (VAP), or of registered voters (the Census reported 73.6% of the voting‑age population was registered) which would yield different numerators and denominators [1] [4]. Scholars and data projects warn that until all state certifications and reconciliations are complete, final VEP-based turnout rates can shift slightly, and methodological choices about including overseas voters or using ballots counted versus votes for president create variation [5] [4].
5. What this number means politically and why turnout patterns mattered
The roughly one-in-three figure does not contradict the election outcome; it highlights that high but not universal turnout combined with narrow vote margins produced results that swung the presidency — and that differential turnout (Republican-leaning eligible voters turning out at higher rates in 2024) was a core explanation for Trump’s win, according to Pew’s validated‑voter analyses [3] [6]. Analysts also point to shifting coalitions — gains for Trump among Hispanic and some young white voters in 2024 — and to the fact that many eligible voters continue to sit out elections, meaning changes in who shows up can have outsized effects [7] [8].