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Fact check: What percentage of Hispanic voters supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election?
Executive Summary
The percentage of Hispanic (Latino) voters who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election is contested across reputable sources but clusters around the low-to-mid 40s in national post-election estimates and lower in some state or poll-based samples; major national analyses reported roughly 42–48% for Trump while several polls and state reports show lower figures around 35–37% [1] [2] [3]. The discrepancy reflects different methods—exit polls, post-election surveys, and later Pew adjustments—and important geographic and subgroup variation that changes the headline number depending on timing and sampling [2] [4] [5].
1. Why numbers differ: early exit polls versus later survey adjustments that change the story
Different reputable outlets reported different shares of the Hispanic vote for Trump because they used distinct methodologies and timelines, producing materially different topline percentages. Immediate November 2024 exit polls and AP projections reported Trump at about 42% of the Hispanic vote, a result widely cited in contemporaneous coverage and in AP’s compiled projection [1]. By mid-2025, the Pew Research Center released an analysis that revised or interpreted post-election data differently, estimating around 48% of Latino voters supporting Trump and stressing shifting preferences relative to 2020 [2]. These divergences are not clerical errors but reflect methodological choices—exit polling mode, weighting procedures, contact lists, and later follow-up surveys that can capture different segments of the electorate or adjust for nonresponse—so the headline percentage depends on which dataset you privilege [4].
2. State and subgroup snapshots show big variation beneath the national headline
Beyond national averages, state-level studies and targeted polls highlight substantial variation: some state reports show Trump receiving only about 35% of Latino voters, such as Georgia-specific analyses where Kamala Harris reportedly won Latino voters by nearly 30 points, with Trump at about 35% [5]. Single surveys of Latino voters during the campaign also produced figures like 37% for Trump vs. 62% for Harris, underlining how the Latino electorate is not monolithic and can swing differently across states, gender, age, and national-origin groups [3] [6]. The contrast between national exit-poll aggregates (42%) and state or subgroup polls (low-to-mid 30s) demonstrates that geography and sample composition—for example, Florida and Texas voters differ from those in Arizona or Nevada—matter greatly when interpreting any single percentage [1] [5].
3. Trend interpretation: real gains or measurement artifact?
Analysts differ on whether Trump’s higher share represents a durable realignment or measurement and turnout differences. Pew’s July 2025 framing emphasized a notable increase to 48% compared with 36% in 2020 and attributed gains to issues such as immigration and the economy, describing a substantial shift in Latino support toward Republicans [2]. Other contemporaneous exit-poll based reports treated the 42% figure as historic relative to past Republican performances but stopped short of declaring a majority shift, suggesting a meaningful but not uniform swing and urging caution because exit polling can undercount certain subgroups [1]. The tension between a mid-40s national estimate and lower state polls raises the possibility that part of the reported increase reflects turnout composition and timing of measurement, not only voter preference change [4].
4. What to emphasize when citing a single percentage
When presenting a single figure for “percent of Hispanic voters who supported Trump,” you must specify the data source and method: cite whether the number is from November 2024 exit polls (≈42%), a July 2025 Pew analysis (≈48%), AP projections (42%), or targeted polls showing lower shares (≈35–37%) in specific contexts [1] [2] [3]. Each source carries different strengths and potential biases: exit polls are timely but can misrepresent turnout; Pew’s later analyses use additional survey data and weighting adjustments that can change the estimate; state- and subgroup-focused surveys reveal local dynamics that national aggregates obscure [4] [5]. Being explicit about the source avoids misleading readers by implying unwarranted precision.
5. Bottom line and best practice for reporting or analysis
The best summary sentence for most audiences is that Trump captured roughly 40–48% of the Latino/Hispanic vote in 2024, with prominent national estimates centered near 42% and later analyses asserting figures closer to 48%, while state and subgroup polls often show lower shares near the mid-30s [1] [2] [3]. Reporters and analysts should present both the headline and the methodological caveats, highlight geographic and demographic variation, and avoid treating any single number as definitive without specifying the measurement approach that produced it [4] [5].