What percentage of registered voters identify as white evangelical Protestants in national polls?
Executive summary
Recent national surveys and demographic studies place the share of registered voters who identify as white evangelical Protestants in a band roughly between the low teens and the mid‑teens to high teens — commonly reported around 14% to 18% — though some measures of “voters” in specific elections have been higher (about one quarter) depending on question wording and the sample (registered vs. likely vs. actual voters) [1] [2] [3].
1. What a straightforward question yields: headline percentages
A widely cited headline from aggregated Pew data reported by Baptist News states that white evangelical Protestants make up about 18% of registered voters, a figure drawn from Pew’s analysis of electorate composition over time [2]. By contrast, the 2020 PRRI Census of American Religion — a large population survey of religious identity — puts white evangelical Protestants at about 14% of the U.S. population, a useful baseline though not identical to “registered voters” [1]. Older exit‑poll style measures and some election‑cycle snapshots have reported larger shares: for example, national exit poll and election analyses have often found roughly one in four voters self‑identify as white evangelical in particular years, a metric that reflects actual voters in a given election rather than the pool of registered voters [3].
2. Why different polls produce different percentages
Differences emerge because surveys ask different questions (religious identity vs. voting behavior vs. party ID), sample different universes (all adults, registered voters, or likely/actual voters), and are taken at different times; PRRI’s census measures population shares, Pew’s electorate analyses track registered or voting‑age electorates, and exit polls capture those who turned out to vote — each yields different percentages for white evangelicals [1] [2] [3]. Methodological choices such as whether “white evangelical” is self‑identified by denomination, coded by interviewers, or combined with racial descriptors also shift results: PRRI and Pew groupings sometimes separate “white evangelical” from other Christian categories, which affects headline percentages [1] [4].
3. How the share has changed across recent cycles
Scholars and pollsters note both stability and change: evangelicals remain a distinct and reliably Republican‑leaning bloc, but their share of the electorate has edged down as the religiously unaffiliated have grown and the overall Christian share of the electorate has fallen since 2008; Pew’s broader analysis and secondary reporting document those longer‑term shifts even as election‑specific exit polls have shown white evangelicals delivering large majorities for Republican nominees [5] [2] [3]. Analysts such as Brookings and PRRI add nuance: within the white population, the share identifying as evangelical has moved up or down depending on the year and dataset, and age and education skews mean the group’s share of voters can differ from its share of the general population [6] [1].
4. What to take away — and the limits of available reporting
The best answer is not a single immutable number but a range tied to the question asked: about 14% of the general population identified as white evangelical in PRRI’s 2020 census (a lower‑bound population figure), while Pew‑derived electorate estimates reported in outlets like Baptist News have placed white evangelicals near 18% of registered voters (a plausible point estimate for the registered electorate), and election‑specific exit polls have shown higher shares among actual voters in some years (around 20–25%) [1] [2] [3]. Reporting limitations mean it is not possible from the provided sources to produce a single definitive percentage for “registered voters” that applies to every poll; instead, informed readers should treat 14%–18% as the typical range across major national measures and remember that turnout and question wording can push the figure higher in particular elections [1] [2] [3].