What percentage of Republicans still believe Donald Trump's 2020 election fraud claims?
Executive summary
Most reputable surveys taken since 2021 show that a clear majority of Republican voters continue to endorse the core claim that the 2020 presidential election was “stolen” or marked by widespread fraud, with typical estimates clustering in the roughly 60–70% range depending on the poll’s question and timing [1] [2] [3]. Polling spikes immediately after the election showed even higher figures, and the share has been remarkably persistent across several national surveys and academic analyses [4] [1].
1. The bottom‑line number: a majority — often about two‑thirds
Multiple national surveys cited by analysts find that roughly six in ten Republicans believe the 2020 election was stolen: PRRI reported about 66% in 2021 and about 63% in 2023, and other polling described by AP-NORC and Brookings likewise concluded that “most” or “a significant majority” of Republicans doubted the legitimacy of Biden’s victory [1] [5] [2]. Academic reviews and longform analyses likewise summarize that “a clear majority of Republicans” held such beliefs in the years after the election [6] [4].
2. Why published percentages vary: question wording, sample, and timing
Differences between polls — some showing figures in the mid‑60s and others as low as the high‑50s or as high as over 75% — are largely explained by how questions are asked (direct “stolen” phrasing versus “legitimate” or “widespread fraud”), the poll’s timing (immediate post‑election versus years later), and which Republican subgroups are sampled (e.g., those who primarily watch Fox News) [4] [7] [3]. For example, a December 2020 survey found “over 75%” of Republicans endorsed various fraud claims when multiple specific allegations were listed, while a Monmouth poll reported about 68% of Republicans believed Biden’s win involved fraud in another timeframe [4] [3].
3. The trend: initial surge, then stubborn persistence
Belief jumped sharply after the 2020 result and, although legal defeats, audits, and repeated fact‑checking have not produced mass reversals, the level of belief declined only modestly in many datasets: PRRI’s tracking showed 66% in 2021 and 63% in 2023, indicating persistence rather than rapid erosion [1]. Academic critiques and fact‑checks emphasize that despite extensive litigation and audits finding no systemic fraud, partisan belief has remained entrenched across multiple years [4] [8].
4. Drivers and incentives: information ecosystems and political signaling
Researchers and journalists point to media ecosystems, elite cues, and motivated reasoning as engines sustaining these beliefs: conservatives who primarily consume partisan outlets are much more likely to say the election was stolen, and Republican leaders’ rhetoric — including repeated claims by Donald Trump — reinforced that narrative even after official investigators and his own Justice Department found no evidence of widespread fraud [7] [8] [9]. Writers at Brookings and The Conversation also highlight that Republican candidates and officials who embraced or echoed fraud claims kept them alive as a political cleavage within the party [2] [10].
5. What this means — and the important caveats
The empirical picture from the sources assembled is straightforward: a sustained majority of Republican voters believe the central “stolen election” claim, generally concentrated around the 60–70% band, but precise percentages depend heavily on poll design, question wording, and timing [1] [4] [3]. Reporting and academic sources agree on the broader conclusion — prevalence and persistence of belief — while differing in the headline numeric because of methodological choices, and available sources do not permit a single definitive “true” percentage at a single moment without specifying which poll is being cited [6] [2].