What percentage of rural voters supported Trump in the 2024 election?
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Executive summary
Different reputable data sources place Donald Trump’s share of the rural vote in 2024 between roughly 62% and 69% — AP VoteCast and major exit-poll reporting cluster near the low- to mid‑60s, while a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters finds a higher figure near 69% — the divergence reflects differences in survey method, sample definitions and timing [1] [2] [3].
1. What the headline numbers say: clustered mid‑60s but not unanimous
Several mainstream post‑election measures put Trump’s rural share at about two‑thirds of the rural electorate: AP VoteCast is cited at 62% for Trump and 36% for Harris (a 62/36 split) [1], CNN exit‑poll reporting compiled in Newsweek indicates roughly 63% for Trump [2], and Newsweek itself also reports a 63% rural share using AP VoteCast in related coverage [4]; these figures converge around the mid‑60s and are the ones most often cited in media summaries.
2. Why Pew’s number is higher — validated voters and different definitions
Pew Research Center’s post‑election analysis, which focused on validated voters, reports that 69% of people who describe their communities as rural voted for Trump and 29% for Harris, an uptick from 65% for Trump in 2020, underscoring how methodology — here, validation of voter status and the self‑identification of community type — can yield higher estimates of Trump’s rural support than exit polls or other surveys [3].
3. Don’t confuse counties with voters — county wins versus vote share
Analysts also point to sweeping county‑level maps — for example, one analysis cites that Trump won some 93% of rural counties in 2024 — but county‑level dominance is not the same as the percentage of rural voters who supported him; winning a large number of sparsely populated counties can coexist with variable vote shares inside those counties and different turnout dynamics in more population‑dense rural towns [5].
4. The methodological snag: exit polls, VoteCast, validation and timing
The differences among 62%, 63% and 69% stem from known tradeoffs: exit polls and AP VoteCast capture voters at or near Election Day and rely on sampled booths and online followups, while Pew’s validated‑voter approach retrofits administrative checks and self‑classification of rural residence, which can shift estimates; media outlets and academic groups also weight samples differently and may oversample certain regions or demographic subgroups, producing the spread observed across sources [1] [2] [3].
5. What the variation tells about interpretation and political narratives
The mid‑60s consensus shows that a clear majority of rural voters backed Trump, but the higher Pew figure implies an even stronger rural preference when stricter validation is applied; this nuance matters because political narratives often conflate county maps, turnout changes and vote share — for example, reporting that “rural America delivered the victory” leans on county wins and turnout patterns rather than isolating individual rural vote percentages, a distinction highlighted by analyses arguing that urban turnout collapses also shaped the outcome [5] [6].
6. Limits of the record and the responsible takeaway
Available reporting makes clear that Trump received roughly two‑thirds of the rural vote by most measures (approximately 62–63% in AP VoteCast/CNN exit‑based figures) and up to about 69% in Pew’s validated‑voter analysis; because sources use different definitions and methods, the most defensible answer is to present a range and note methodology rather than a single definitive percentage [1] [2] [3].