What do polling and early endorsements indicate about the frontrunner to succeed Marjorie Taylor Greene?

1. Why the vacancy matters: a sudden opening in a safe-but-visible seat

Greene’s announced resignation in January turns a reliably Republican, northwest Georgia seat into an immediately contested prize because the district has historically returned her by comfortable margins, but national attention on her exit raises stakes for who replaces her and how the party manages endorsements and primaries ^{[1] [3]}. Local officials and media are already discussing whether Governor Brian Kemp will call a special election or let the seat remain until the 2026 primary, a decision that will shape timing and the field ^[3].

2. What the reporting says about polls and public opinion of Greene herself

Polling cited in recent coverage portrays Greene as a polarizing figure statewide: a Newsweek-cited poll of 600 likely Georgia voters in January 2025 found 43% viewed her unfavorably and 27% favorably, a dynamic that commentators say could complicate any statewide bid and may inform how Republicans weigh endorsements in her district’s succession ^[2]. NPR-affiliate WFAE reported that Donald Trump showed Greene polling suggesting she would flounder in a gubernatorial or Senate race — an example of internal polling being used to guide political decisions and endorsements ^[4].

3. Early endorsements and the Trump factor: fractured influence

Coverage emphasizes that Trump’s stance has been consequential to Greene’s political fortunes: he publicly withdrew support, calling her “Wacky” and later labeled her a “traitor,” and that rupture preceded her resignation; Trump’s endorsement decisions appear to have real weight inside the GOP and could shape who gets early backing to succeed Greene ^{[1] [5]}. However, the sources do not list specific early endorsements for any successor candidates in the 14th District; they instead focus on how Greene’s falling out with Trump changed the political calculations ^{[1] [4]}.

4. Who’s been named as running — reporting so far is descriptive, not predictive

Ballotpedia and local reporting document that Greene had declared re-election plans for 2026 and that the district has seen multiple GOP challengers historically, but current coverage in the provided set does not identify a clear frontrunner or present head-to-head polling among potential successors ^{[6] [3]}. Atlanta News First notes the district’s history of contested primaries and references potential special-election scenarios, yet it does not single out a likely nominee ^[3].

5. Competing perspectives in the coverage

Some outlets frame Greene’s exit as the fallout of a strategic political break with Trump and of internal polling showing weakness for statewide bids (WFAE, The Guardian), which implies party elites may prefer more conventional conservatives; others emphasize her continued national notoriety and the unpredictability of crowded GOP primaries that can elevate outsiders ^{[4] [5]}. The New York Times and CNBC foreground Trump’s role in public withdrawal of support, signaling that the former president’s endorsements may be decisive — but none of these sources provide concrete evidence that a specific successor has consolidated that kind of backing ^{[1] [7]}.

6. What reporters and analysts say about likely dynamics, not outcomes

Analysts quoted in coverage suggest the field will be shaped by timing (special election vs. normal primary), party interest in avoiding a bruising, high-profile primary, and whether national figures like Trump intervene with endorsements or distance ^{[3] [4]}. Those same accounts stress that Greene’s polarizing statewide numbers could push Republican kingmakers to prefer candidates with broader appeal — but available sources do not confirm which candidates have earned such elite consensus ^{[2] [4]}.

7. Bottom line and limitations of current reporting

There is clear, consistent reporting that Greene will resign and that her relationship with Trump and polling about her standing mattered to that decision ^{[1] [4] [7]}. However, the supplied sources do not identify a documented frontrunner, do not show successor-focused public polling, and do not list early endorsements coalescing around any single candidate in the 14th District (not found in current reporting). Future developments to watch: any special-election timetable from Governor Kemp, lists of declared candidates, internal GOP polling released publicly, and Trump or other national GOP endorsements that could crystallize a frontrunner ^{[3] [1]}.