Have polls shown changes in Republican support for Trump since his presidency?

1. Republicans’ core remains rock-solid, according to many polls

Several respected national surveys find very high approval of Trump among self-identified Republicans or “strong” Republicans, with figures reported in the 90s across multiple organizations—Pew found 93% approval among strong Republicans in August 2025 and Chatham House cited 91% Republican approval in January 2026—indicating an enduring and intense base loyalty that has changed little since his first term ^{[1] [5]}.

2. But cracks are visible at the edges of the GOP coalition

Independent analysts and polling firms describe a pattern of bleeding at the margins: Republican-leaning independents and some Republicans have become less enthusiastic, producing modest declines in approval for Trump on specific issues and overall job performance in several recent polls ^{[2] [6]}. Brookings and Ipsos trace falling approval into a decline of several points—enough to affect swing voters and midterm prospects—while Reuters and YouGov/Economist found week-to-week shifts among subgroups like Hispanics, men and women ^{[6] [2] [7] [4]}.

3. Issue-based slippage — immigration and the economy stand out

Trump’s signature strengths when he campaigned—immigration and promises on the economy—have shown significant erosion in some surveys: AP-NORC and Reuters/Ipsos documented marked declines in approval for his immigration handling since he took office, and Marquette and other polls show falling GOP approval of his economic stewardship ^{[3] [4] [8]}. That issue-specific decline helps explain why overall Republican unanimity can coexist with growing unease among voters who previously backed him for those particular pledges ^[8].

4. Timing matters: second term dynamics differ from the first

Comparative polling archives and daily averages compiled by the New York Times and Gallup show patterns across both of Trump’s presidencies: his second-term approval has at times been similar to or slightly better than the nadirs of his earlier term, but stability masks short-run deterioration tied to events like shutdowns, foreign policy moves and controversial actions that reduced Republican and independent backing in certain polls ^{[9] [10] [11]}. Gallup and AP-NORC report episodes where approval among Republicans dipped noticeably after specific flashpoints ^{[10] [11]}.

5. Poll methodology and partisan framing shape the appearance of change

Different pollsters produce different snapshots: some ask about “strong Republicans,” others about all self-identified Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, and question wording about the “job” versus specific policy areas yields different results—explaining why one poll can show 95% GOP approval while another shows meaningful erosion within the party ^{[4] [1] [2]}. Analysts warn these distinctions are crucial for interpreting whether change is substantive or statistical noise ^{[9] [7]}.

6. Political implications and open questions

The empirical picture is mixed but clear enough to have consequences: near-universal loyalty in the GOP base coexists with weakening support among the persuadable edge of the Republican coalition and among independents—trends that pollsters and think tanks argue could affect midterm outcomes and policy leverage ^{[6] [5]}. However, variability across polls and the limited time window since his return mean questions remain about whether these are transient swings or a sustained realignment; the available sources do not definitively resolve that trajectory ^{[9] [6]}.