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How did presidential approval ratings change after the 2013 and 2018–2019 government shutdowns?
Executive Summary
The available polling evidence shows that both the 2013 and the 2018–2019 government shutdowns produced short-term declines in presidential approval and broader increases in public dissatisfaction with Washington, but the magnitude and partisan attributions differed: 2013 produced modest drops for President Obama amid wider anger at Congress and Republicans receiving much of the blame, while the 2018–2019 shutdown produced larger declines in President Trump’s approval and concentrated blame on him and Senate/House Republicans. Key surveys and post-shutdown analyses emphasize blame attribution (who voters held responsible) as the primary driver of approval moves, and they document that damage to public perceptions of Congress and the political system often outlasts shifts in the president’s approval [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7].
1. Short-term hits to the president: measurable but context-dependent drops
Polling around the 2013 shutdown shows President Obama’s approval fell modestly, with figures cited moving from the mid-50s earlier in the year to roughly 41–45 percent by October–December 2013, and specific polls showing declines tied to budget fights and the Affordable Care Act rollout [3] [1]. Analysts link the drop to a sequence of political events—sequestration, budget battles, and healthcare rollout problems—so the shutdown was one of several stressors rather than a solitary cause [3]. In contrast, during the 2018–2019 shutdown several January 2019 polls placed President Trump’s job approval in the mid-to-high 30s, with a notable uptick in disapproval attributed to the shutdown; one Washington Post–ABC poll put disapproval at 58 percent and approval at 37 percent, a several-point decline over months [5] [6]. Both episodes show declines concentrated in the short term and tied to other contemporaneous events.
2. Blame drives the size of the swing: Republicans blamed in both episodes, but narratives differ
Polls from both shutdowns show that the public’s judgment about who was responsible strongly shaped approval movements. The 2013 polling consistently found that majorities blamed Republicans for the impasse—large shares in some polls said GOP tactics damaged the party’s image—and that Congressional actors bore heavy responsibility even when Obama’s approval dipped [2] [1] [7]. The 2018–2019 data similarly show that a plurality or majority blamed President Trump and congressional Republicans—one set placed that figure at 53 percent—helping explain why Trump’s approval ratings weakened among key groups [5] [6]. Analysts therefore point to attribution of responsibility—not merely the shutdown itself—as the main mechanism linking shutdowns to presidential approval shifts [4] [1].
3. Broader damage to trust in institutions often outlasts the president’s fluctuation
Reporting and analysis after 2013 emphasize that the shutdown’s lasting legacy was not solely on Obama’s numbers but on public attitudes toward government and Congress, with heightened dissatisfaction and “Washington” damage cited as more enduring effects [1] [7]. The 2018–2019 polling likewise recorded that a majority viewed the shutdown as a serious problem and that impressions of congressional dysfunction rose; those systemic perceptions tend to persist beyond immediate polling swings for an individual president [4] [5]. This pattern means that even when presidential approval partially recovers, public faith in institutions and parties often suffers more persistently, affecting future political dynamics.
4. Variation across polls and timing: measurement choices matter
The analyses show meaningful variation across pollsters and timing: some polls recorded sharper short-term falls, others showed more modest changes or stability, and many attribute declines to a mix of contemporaneous events (healthcare rollout, sequester, media revelations in 2013; prolonged border debates and a 35-day shutdown in 2018–2019) [3] [4] [8]. The differences underscore that which survey, when it was taken, and the questions asked can shift reported magnitudes of approval change. Where multiple polls converge on blame attribution and a negative movement, confidence in the direction of the effect rises even if point estimates differ [2] [5].
5. Political consequences and partisan implications: reputational costs and electoral signals
Analysts link the 2013 shutdown’s fallout to longer-term reputational costs for Republicans and a broader public impression of governmental dysfunction that fed into subsequent political dynamics, including the 2016 environment, while the 2018–2019 shutdown’s concentrated blame on Trump and congressional Republicans translated into immediate approval penalties and electoral messaging advantages for Democrats in 2019–2020 cycles [1] [7] [5]. Observers caution that while approval moves are important, they are one input among many for electoral outcomes; the polling record consistently shows that blame assignment and perceived competence on core issues drive both short-term approval and the political fallout that follows shutdowns [1] [4].