How do rates of clemency by president correlate with party, administration priorities, and crime policy trends?
Executive summary
Presidential clemency patterns vary sharply by administration and political aims: President Biden issued an unprecedented large class commutation of about 2,490 people and used proclamations for marijuana-related offenses [1] [2]. By contrast, recent Republican presidents have granted far fewer routine clemencies but, in the Trump 2025–present term, used mass and high-profile pardons—reporting shows Trump issued roughly 1,500 pardons on Jan. 20, 2025 and had granted more than 1,600 to 1,800 people in 2025, frequently favoring political allies [3] [4] [5].
1. Clemency totals tell only part of the story
Raw counts vary: Pew’s analysis found Biden granted more acts of clemency than any prior president in its study and used proclamations to forgive broad classes of marijuana convictions, producing large numerical spikes [2]. The Justice Department’s Office of the Pardon Attorney maintains case counts and notes that class-wide proclamations may be excluded from some tallies, meaning headline totals depend on counting rules [6] [2].
2. Party, priorities and the shape of grants
Party control aligns imperfectly with clemency style. Democratic administrations (example: Biden) have emphasized decarceration and criminal-justice reform, using commutations and proclamations to reduce sentences and clear certain drug convictions [2] [1]. Republican administrations, including Trump’s recent term, have focused clemency on political allies, high-profile individual pardons, and large one-day actions that reflect political loyalty rather than broad policy reform [5] [4] [7].
3. Administration priorities change the kinds of relief issued
How a president frames clemency defines outcomes: Biden’s late-term commutations—2,490 in one release—were presented as sentence reductions and relief tied to reform priorities [1]. Trump’s clemency in 2025 emphasized pardoning participants in political controversies—such as January 6-related actors—and protecting allies, sometimes bypassing traditional review practices, according to reporting [3] [4] [5].
4. Timing: end-of-term spikes are routine
Across administrations, clemency commonly surges late in a term. CRS/Library of Congress research shows nearly every president since 1945 who completed a term increased clemency rates in the final four months of office [8]. Pew observed that Biden’s large December actions fit a broader pattern of presidents concentrating clemency near the end of their terms [9] [2].
5. Process and institutional norms affect outcomes
Historically, presidents leaned on the Justice Department’s Office of the Pardon Attorney and a review manual to vet petitions; when presidents sidestep that system, critics say outcomes shift toward favoritism and politically motivated grants [5]. Reporting notes that Trump’s 2025 approach often circumvented standard review and at times installed loyalists in key pardon roles, a change that critics argue produced different selection patterns [4] [5].
6. Crime-policy trends shape who benefits
Clemency correlates with crime-policy priorities: administrations pushing drug-law reform or decarceration tend to use commutation and class pardons to reduce sentences for nonviolent drug offenders [2]. Administrations prioritizing law-and-order or political loyalty use clemency in targeted ways—pardoning allies or controversial figures rather than large classes tied to policy change [4] [5].
7. Accountability, recidivism and political risk
Journalistic reporting highlights risks when review norms are set aside: observers say bypassing standard vetting increases the chance that recipients will reoffend or that victims’ restitution may be affected; some estimates in reporting tied certain recent pardons to large unpaid restitution sums [4] [5]. Available sources document arrests after pardons and critiques of process; they do not provide a comprehensive, long-term recidivism comparison across administrations [5].
8. How to interpret correlations—and what reporting does not say
The record shows strong correlations between party/administration priorities and clemency style in these sources: Democrats using class and reform-focused relief [2] [1], Republicans—at least in the recent Trump example—issuing high-profile, politically framed pardons and bypassing office norms [4] [5] [7]. Available sources do not mention a comprehensive statistical model linking clemency rates to crime-rate trends nationwide, nor do they present a uniform method for comparing presidents once proclamations and counting rules vary [6] [2].
Closing note: Use counts from the Justice Department and analyses from Pew and CRS as the baseline for comparison; interpret totals in light of how administrations define and count clemency actions and whether they rely on the Office of the Pardon Attorney or political channels when selecting recipients [6] [2] [8].