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Did polling trends show growing or declining support for Proposition 50 among 18–29-year-olds before Election Day?
Executive summary
Polling available in the run-up to the November 4, 2025 special election showed broad, rising support for Proposition 50 overall, with several late polls putting Yes in the 50s–60s among likely voters (for example Emerson found 51% to 57% Yes and CBS/Guardian reporting a 62% figure) [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not provide disaggregated, time‑series polling numbers specifically for the 18–29 age cohort that would let us say conclusively whether support among that group was growing or declining before Election Day; youth-specific trend data is not mentioned in the cited reporting (not found in current reporting).
1. Polls showed growing overall support for Prop 50 in late 2025
Multiple public polls cited in the reporting show support for Proposition 50 increasing as the special election approached: Emerson College Polling’s releases reported Yes support in the low‑to‑high 50s (51% in one release, 57% among likely voters in another) and said support had risen from earlier hypothetical measures [1] [3]. The Guardian summarized other polls, citing a CBS News figure of 62% among likely voters [2]. Major outlets framed Prop 50 as polling comfortably ahead in the days before voting [4] [5].
2. Reporting discusses overall and likely‑voter figures, not youth trends
The available stories emphasize aggregate and “likely voter” results and demographic splits such as education level (Emerson noted higher Yes among college‑educated voters) but do not publish detailed, repeated cross‑sectional numbers for 18–29‑year‑olds over time [1] [3]. Thus, while the mainstream narrative was “Yes polling ahead,” those articles and poll releases do not document a time series of youth support that would show growth or decline among 18–29s specifically (not found in current reporting).
3. Where reporters did provide subgroup patterns, the focus was on education and turnout
Emerson’s releases called out differences by education (60% Yes among college/post‑grad vs. 43% without degrees) and noted turnout likelihood mattered for support levels, but they did not publish a parallel breakdown for the 18–29 bracket across multiple polls to establish a trendline [1] [3]. CalMatters and The Guardian emphasized the campaign’s heavy spending and star endorsements — strategic factors that can shift broad coalitions — but again did not report sequential youth‑age polling trends [6] [2].
4. Exit and post‑vote coverage show broad support, but youth breakdowns remain sparse
After Election Day coverage described a decisive Yes victory (The Guardian citing a roughly 63.8% approval figure; New York Times noting polls had shown a sizable margin) [7] [4]. ABC and other outlets referenced exit‑poll analysis to project passage [8]. However, the sources provided here do not include detailed exit‑poll tables breaking out 18–29 responses over time or comparing early and late pre‑election youth polls (not found in current reporting).
5. Two plausible interpretations and why data matters
Interpretation A (supported by available data): because overall support among likely voters rose into the 50s–60s and campaigns targeted broad messaging, it is plausible youth support rose as part of a general swing to Yes — but that is an inference, not a documented youth trend [1] [3] [2]. Interpretation B (also plausible): youth attitudes could have moved differently — for example, younger voters sometimes register stronger anti‑establishment or reform skepticism and might have lagged adult cohorts — but the present sources do not provide evidence for that hypothesis (not found in current reporting). The difference matters because turnout and age‑specific preferences materially affect outcomes, and aggregate polls can mask divergent subgroup trends [1].
6. What would be needed to answer definitively
To determine whether support among 18–29‑year‑olds grew or declined before Election Day you would need repeated cross‑tabulations or trend releases from major pollsters or exit‑poll tables showing age‑bracket percentages at multiple points (e.g., Emerson/PPIC/CBS releases with age breaks or official exit‑poll age cross‑tabs). The sources here either lack age‑specific time series or do not publish the 18–29 subgroup breakdowns over time (not found in current reporting) [1] [3] [2] [8].
7. Bottom line for readers
Public polling reported to the media showed Prop 50 gaining and then commanding comfortable margins among likely voters shortly before the election [1] [3] [2]. Available reporting and poll releases in this collection do not, however, provide the repeated age‑specific numbers needed to say whether 18–29‑year‑olds specifically showed a growing or declining trend before Election Day — that detail is absent from the cited coverage (not found in current reporting). If you want a definitive youth trend, request age‑break cross‑tabs or exit‑poll tables from the pollsters named in these stories (Emerson, CBS, PPIC) or from the major news exit‑poll datasets referenced by ABC/NBC/NYT [1] [2] [4] [8].