How did public opinion of Trump change from 2016 to 2024 and beyond?

1. 2016–2020: outsider surge and entrenched polarization

Trump’s 2016 rise reflected a concentrated coalition that translated into victory despite historically low approval for a new president, and throughout his first term public opinion was sharply divided—high approval among his base and strong disapproval among opponents—setting the template for the polarized polling dynamic that followed ^{[4] [1]}.

2. 2020–2024: electoral rebound and a narrow winning coalition

After a turbulent first term and a 2020 defeat, Trump’s public standing rebounded into 2024 when he won a second non‑consecutive term with roughly half of the popular vote, and immediately after that election some polls registered approval spikes—Gallup and other trackers showed an approval surge in November 2024 to levels above 50% in some snapshots—evidence that winning consolidated his supporters even if broader sentiment stayed fractured ^{[1] [4]}.

3. Post‑2024 inauguration: stabilization and early erosion

By Inauguration Day in January 2025 and in the months that followed, multiple trackers and aggregators recorded a drift downward from the post‑election bounce: Chatham House summarized steady declines from about 47% at inauguration to roughly mid‑30s by late 2025, while Nate Silver’s averages and New York Times polling showed net approval in the low‑40s to high‑30s, indicating that Trump’s second‑term approval was lower than many prior presidents at comparable points ^{[3] [5] [6]}.

4. Issue‑level strains: economy, immigration and foreign policy

Polling showed erosion on the very issues that helped elect him: by mid‑2025 and into 2026 approval of his immigration enforcement and foreign military actions weakened—AP‑NORC and Quinnipiac data cited by Axios found large majorities uncomfortable with some uses of force and falling approval for immigration tactics—while many voters judged he was not doing enough to lower everyday costs, producing cross‑pressures that depressed his net approval ^{[7] [8]}.

5. The resilient base vs. wavering persuadables

Despite overall declines, party fidelity remained strong: a Wall Street Journal‑cited figure flagged that an overwhelming share of 2024 Trump voters continued to approve of him in early second‑term polling, and Fox and other Republican outlets emphasized that the core MAGA electorate remained highly loyal—yet independent and suburban voters showed more volatility, and several outlets warned that erosion among independents and key swing demographics created electoral risks for Republicans in midterms ^{[9] [10] [11]}.

6. Interpretation, competing narratives and methodological caveats

Analysts and outlets offer competing readings: conservative commentators highlight stable base approval as proof of success, while independent poll analysts and mainstream outlets point to a sustained net negative or weakening average that historically precedes midterm challenges ^{[9] [5] [2]}; polling aggregates differ by methodology and timing, and some of Trump’s criticisms of “fraudulent” polls reflect political messaging more than documented sampling problems, a claim critics note has little independent corroboration in the sources ^{[12] [5]}.

7. Where opinion likely goes from here — evidence, not prophecy

The evidence through late 2025 and early 2026 suggests a president with a durable but limited coalition: state‑level trackers show above‑water approval in fewer than half the states and worsening swing‑state ratings, while issue backlash (immigration incidents, foreign interventions, cost‑of‑living concerns) creates potential for further downward pressure unless policies or events shift public sentiment—this assessment follows Brookings, Morning Consult and other trackers that document both resilience and vulnerability ^{[11] [13] [2]}.