Recent polls on American views of Donald Trump and US democracy
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Executive summary
Recent national polls show President Donald Trump running with approval roughly in the low-to-mid 40s and disapproval in the mid-50s — for example, Ipsos reported 41% approval/57% disapproval in early December 2025 and Nate Silver’s bulletin put approval at 42.8% and disapproval at 54% in mid-December 2025 [1] [2]. Multiple polls also identify the economy and threats to democracy (political extremism) as top voter concerns, and several surveys find frustration with Trump’s handling of the economy and the government shutdown [3] [4] [5].
1. Polls show a consistent downward trend in Trump’s standing
Across outlets and aggregations, polling in late 2025 documents a slide in Trump’s numbers from earlier in the year: Ipsos reported a 41% approval and 57% disapproval figure in early December 2025 [1], The Hill and Axios characterize the broader picture as a steady erosion through 2025 and warn Republicans of trouble heading into 2026 [6] [7]. Nate Silver’s tracking similarly placed Trump near low‑40s approval and low‑50s disapproval in mid‑December [2]. These sources together sketch a pattern of declining public confidence rather than isolated outlier results [6] [2].
2. Voters list the economy and threats to democracy as top issues
National surveys repeatedly rank the economy and threats to democratic norms or political extremism among voters’ most important concerns. Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey cited by Ipsos found Americans view political extremism and threats to democracy as the most important issue, followed by the economy and corruption [3]. Emerson’s November 2025 national poll put the economy at 75% “very important” and “threats to democracy” at 61% [5]. That combination helps explain why declines in economic sentiment and anxiety about democratic institutions hit Trump’s approval [3] [5].
3. Specific events — notably the long 2025 government shutdown — shape the numbers
The months‑long government shutdown in 2025 is repeatedly linked to voter dissatisfaction. NBC News polling found a majority blamed Trump and House Republicans for the shutdown (52%), and several outlets tie voters’ economic complaints to that political environment [4]. The New York Times and PBS coverage of state and local election results in November framed those outcomes as barometers of public sentiment about Trump’s agenda amid the shutdown [8] [9]. Polls therefore reflect both policy outcomes and high‑visibility political conflicts.
4. Variation by subgroups and pollster method matters
While national averages cluster in the low‑40s approval range, subgroup and single‑poll variations are meaningful. Quantus reported a sharper month‑to‑month swing among urban voters — from 37% approval in November to 43% in December in its sample — highlighting geographic and demographic fluctuation [10]. Emerson’s work also shows that sizable shares of voters say their midterm votes will be “to express opposition to President Trump” (43%), showing motivation differences that don’t always show up as snapshot approval numbers [5]. Polling house effects and sample frames therefore matter [2].
5. Political consequences: polls signal opportunities for Democrats but not uniform decline
Multiple sources read the polling as giving Democrats openings for 2026: NBC and Emerson both reported Democratic advantages in motivation and congressional ballot positioning in late 2025 [4] [5]. Axios and The Hill note Republican alarm and internal debate. Yet not all polls paint a catastrophe; some trackers show modest recoveries or variation over weeks [2] [10]. The picture is competitive but tilted toward voter concern about the economy and democracy [2] [3].
6. Limits of the available reporting and what’s not said
Available sources do not mention consistent, fully comparable national time series from every major pollster in a single table here — instead reporting is dispersed across Ipsos, Emerson, Quantus, Nate Silver’s bulletin and media‑summaries [3] [1] [2] [5] [10]. They do not provide a unified margin‑of‑error–adjusted aggregation in these excerpts; some polls report sample sizes and MOEs (Quantus, Verasight) while others are summarized by media [11] [10]. Readers should note methodological differences across pollsters when translating these figures into predictions [2].
Bottom line: public concern is concentrated on costs and democratic risks, and that is depressing Trump’s net ratings
Multiple late‑2025 polls converge on the same narrative: middling approval in the low‑40s, stronger disapproval in the mid‑50s, and voter focus on the economy and threats to democracy — outcomes amplified by the protracted government shutdown and uneven subgroup dynamics [1] [2] [3] [4]. Sources disagree on the depth and permanence of the slide — some see steady erosion, others small recoveries in subgroups — but none contradict the core pattern of trouble for the White House heading into 2026 [6] [10].