Fact check: How do gun laws in red states affect crime rates in 2024?

Executive summary — Quick answer up front, with the evidence in plain view

States commonly labeled “red” show mixed and sometimes contradictory relationships between gun laws and 2024 crime outcomes: some reporting links between lax laws and higher shooting rates (Alabama, Missouri), while other analyses find reductions in gun crimes after permitless carry laws in places like Ohio, and broad declines in fatal shootings in many large cities in 2024. The evidence in the assembled analyses is not uniform; it contains correlations, case studies, policy reactions, and statewide comparisons published across 2024–2025 that point to both policy failure narratives and counterexamples of falling gun crime ^{[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]}.

1. Alarm bells in some red states: Alabama and Missouri show high gun-violence signals

Reporting and data summaries highlight very high shooting incident rates in Alabama with 213.6 incidents per 100,000 residents—about 83 percent above the national average—and label Alabama among the highest in the U.S., prompting calls for reform ^[1]. Missouri is portrayed as having “weak” gun laws tied to a spike in gun deaths and investigative difficulty after a 2024 Kansas City mass shooting; analysts and advocates framed the state’s legal landscape as an obstacle for prevention and law enforcement ^[2]. These pieces treat elevated shooting rates and legislative weakness as linked phenomena rather than established causation ^{[1] [2]}.

2. Contradictory signal: Ohio’s constitutional carry and reported declines in urban gun crimes

A January 2024 study cited by advocates and some local officials documents declines in gun crimes across six of Ohio’s eight largest cities following the state’s permitless carry law, contradicting predictions that permitless carry automatically raises violence ^[3]. This evidence is presented as an empirical counterexample to blanket claims that relaxed laws increase shootings. The analysis describes city-level outcomes rather than statewide homicide trends, emphasizing that impacts differ by locality and time frame, and the study is dated January 2024, offering a closer look at short-term urban trends ^[3].

3. National correlations: stronger laws associated with greater drops in shooting homicides

A Center for American Progress analysis from January 2024 reports a correlation between state law strength and reductions in shooting homicides, with states having stricter restrictions seeing larger declines. This framing treats legislative strength as a statistical predictor of homicide trends across jurisdictions but remains positioned as correlational rather than causal, and it complements case-level reporting that emphasizes state-by-state variances ^[5]. The piece is one of the policy-leaning sources arguing for the preventive value of restrictive laws in aggregate.

4. High-profile policy flashpoints and political pushback in 2023–2025

Incidents and policy responses illustrate political friction: after a 2023 shooting, the Texas State Fair banned firearms for safety, provoking lawsuits threats from Republican officials and gun groups who argue state public-carry allowances clash with event restrictions ^[6]. In Massachusetts, advocates sought to overturn a 2024 tightening of an already strict law, with mental health and legal experts defending the regulations as necessary for safety ^[7]. These episodes show legal conflict and political mobilization around where authority to restrict firearms lies, with publication dates spanning 2023–2025 ^{[6] [7]}.

5. Broad downward trends in urban fatal shootings complicate simple cause-effect stories

An analysis cited in mid-2025 reports a 27 percent drop in fatal shootings in 2024 across the largest U.S. cities, with ongoing declines into 2025, and highlights marked heterogeneity between cities—Jacksonville is singled out for a reported 100 percent decrease in one claim ^[4]. This city-level decline suggests that national and urban dynamics—including policing, community interventions, enforcement changes, economic factors, and pandemic-era shifts—may drive trends independently of state-level statutory positioning, complicating attempts to attribute 2024 crime changes solely to whether a state is “red” or its gun laws ^[4].

6. What the analyses leave out and why conclusions remain contested

The assembled items emphasize correlations, case studies, local variations, and political reactions but lack unified causal models; sources repeatedly frame findings as correlations or localized impacts rather than definitive cause-and-effect proofs ^{[5] [2] [3]}. The coverage omits standardized national counterfactuals, long-term pre/post analyses for many policies, and uniform metrics for enforcement intensity, making it difficult to generalize from a few state examples to a national rule. The pieces also display clear advocacy and political angles—pro-reform framing in Alabama/Missouri coverage and pro-rights legal challenges in Texas and Massachusetts—requiring attention to possible agendas ^{[1] [2] [6] [7]}.

7. Bottom line: mixed evidence — policy effects vary by place, time, and measure

Taken together, the analyses show no single, uncontested answer: some red states with lax laws report high shooting rates and investigative challenges, while other jurisdictions that relaxed carry restrictions report declines in urban gun crimes, and national urban fatal shootings fell in 2024. The evidence across 2024–2025 is heterogeneous, time-bound, and often correlational, meaning assessments must account for local conditions, enforcement, and other social factors rather than attributing 2024 crime changes solely to whether a state’s laws are “red” or “strict” ^{[1] [2] [3] [5] [4]}.