Fact check: Red states have higher crime rates

1. Summary of the results

The claim that red states have higher crime rates is supported by multiple analyses from various sources, including ^[1], ^[2], ^[1], ^[5], ^[6], and ^[3]. These sources cite specific examples of cities in Republican states with high murder rates, such as Jackson, Mississippi, and Birmingham, Alabama ^[1], and note that at least ten cities in states whose Republican governors are deploying National Guard troops to Washington, DC, had higher rates of violent crime or homicide than DC last year ^[2]. Additionally, sources ^[1] and ^[6] report that the four cities with the highest murder rates in 2024 are in Republican states, and that 13 of the 20 US cities with the highest murder rates were in Republican-run states, respectively. Key findings from these analyses include the fact that murder rates in red states were 33% higher than in blue states in both 2021 and 2022 ^[3], and that 8 out of the 10 states with the highest murder rates in 2022 voted for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020 ^[3].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

However, some sources provide a more nuanced view of crime rates, highlighting the difference between raw numbers and rates, and how politicians often choose numbers that favor their message ^[4]. These sources note that while Chicago has a high number of homicides, its homicide rate is not the highest in the US or the world, and that other cities, including those in red states, have violent crime problems too ^[4]. Alternative viewpoints also include the fact that crime rates can vary significantly within states, and that urban and rural areas may have different crime rates ^[4]. Furthermore, sources ^[1] and ^[4] suggest that Democratic leadership may be associated with lower crime rates in large cities, which could be an important factor to consider when evaluating the relationship between state politics and crime rates.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement that red states have higher crime rates may be misleading or biased if it is presented without considering the nuances of crime rates and the variations within states ^[4]. Additionally, sources ^[1] and ^[4] suggest that Democratic leadership may be associated with lower crime rates in large cities, which could be an important factor to consider when evaluating the relationship between state politics and crime rates. Politicians and media outlets may benefit from presenting a simplified narrative that supports their message, rather than providing a more nuanced and accurate view of crime rates ^[4]. Interest groups and political parties may also benefit from presenting a biased view of crime rates, in order to advance their own agendas and policies ^[3]. ^{[1] [2] [4] [5] [6] [3]}