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Fact check: What are the top 5 red states with the highest crime rates in 2024?
Executive Summary
The core factual claim across the provided analyses is that the cities with the highest murder rates in 2024 were Jackson (MS), Birmingham (AL), St. Louis (MO), and Memphis (TN), and that these cities are located in states governed by Republicans, a pattern repeated in multiple summaries of FBI data from mid- to late‑2025 [1] [2] [3]. Reported murder rates range from roughly 40.6 to 78.7 per 100,000 residents for those four cities, and several pieces assert that a majority of the top‑10 cities by murder rate were in red states [1] [3].
1. What the sources actually claim — a tight list of cities and rates
All provided analyses converge on the same four cities as the top murder‑rate performers in 2024: Jackson, Birmingham, St. Louis, and Memphis, with reported rates approximately 78.7, 58.8, 54.1, and 40.6 murders per 100,000 residents respectively, and they explicitly note these cities are in Republican‑led states [1] [2] [3]. The accounts repeatedly cite FBI data as their basis and emphasize the population threshold of at least 100,000 for city inclusion, which shapes the topline list and excludes many smaller jurisdictions with different patterns [3]. The numerical consistency across summaries strengthens the claim’s internal reliability.
2. Bigger pattern pushed by multiple outlets — ‘red states’ framing
Several analyses generalize from city lists to a broader assertion: that eight of the top ten highest‑murder cities in 2024 were located in red states, spanning Mississippi, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio, and Louisiana [3]. This framing shifts focus from municipal crime hot spots to a state‑level political story, stressing that many high‑rate cities sit inside states with Republican governors or legislatures [2]. The repetition across pieces dated August–September 2025 suggests this narrative gained traction in that period, often tied to political debates about public safety and resource deployment [3] [4].
3. What’s being omitted — city vs. state dynamics and population filters
The analyses omit key context: city homicide rates do not equate to statewide crime averages, and high murder rates are concentrated in specific cities that are often governed locally by Democratic mayors and city councils despite being in Republican states. The population cutoff (≥100,000) excludes smaller jurisdictions and rural areas that can pull statewide per‑capita figures in different directions, so the claim about “red states having the highest crime” conflates distinct geographic levels [3]. This omission matters for policy interpretations and for attributing causality to state leadership.
4. Political uses and competing agendas behind the data
The timing and framing of these analyses coincide with political arguments about safety, troop deployments, and presidential rhetoric. Some pieces explicitly contextualize the statistics amid GOP governors’ decisions to deploy National Guard troops to Washington or to criticize urban crime narratives, signaling a potential political motive in highlighting red‑state concentrations of high‑rate cities [4] [2]. Conversely, other accounts emphasize long‑term crime trends and falling violent crime in many large cities, which complicates singular political claims [2]. Both angles use the same FBI data to support different policy narratives.
5. Agreement and divergence across the evidence pool
Across the supplied sources there is broad agreement on the top four city names and similar rate estimates, which shows consistency in the underlying FBI numbers cited [1] [2] [3]. Divergence appears in emphasis: some pieces foreground a national political point about red states housing many top‑ranked cities [3], while others stress that city-level violent crime trends have been falling over recent years, tempering alarmist interpretations [2]. The sources’ close publication dates in August–September 2025 reflect a narrow reporting window with convergent datasets but differing editorial frames.
6. What a careful reader should take away right now
The factual core is clear: Jackson, Birmingham, St. Louis, and Memphis led U.S. cities in reported murder rates in 2024, and many of the highest‑rate large cities were located in Republican‑governed states, per multiple August–September 2025 reports summarizing FBI data [1] [3]. However, the broader claim that “red states have the highest crime” is a simplification that ignores municipal governance, population thresholds, and varying trajectories across cities and years. Policymaking or political messaging that treats the city‑level rates as synonymous with statewide law‑and‑order performance risks misattributing causation [3] [2].
7. Final note on evidence quality and next steps for verification
The analyses rely on the FBI’s 2024 data and consistent reporting in late summer and early fall 2025, which provides a coherent snapshot but not a complete causal map [1] [3]. For a fuller picture, independent checks should disaggregate city vs. state rates, examine non‑homicide violent crime trends, and review municipal governance and socioeconomic factors that drive homicide clustering. Any claim that translates these city rankings into simple partisan verdicts should be treated as incomplete without those additional breakdowns [2] [4].