Fact check: Which red states have the highest rates of violent crime in 2024?

Executive summary: Two recent, divergent data narratives converge on a common point: several states that vote Republican in national elections appear repeatedly on 2024–2025 lists of states with elevated violent‑crime or homicide rates, but the exact roster depends on the metric and source. Opinion and think‑tank commentary highlights Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia as high‑murder red states ^[1], while national rankings based on per‑capita violent‑crime place New Mexico, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana near the top in 2024 ^[2]; FBI data for 2024, however, shows a national decline in violent crime, complicating simple red/blue narratives ^{[3] [4]}.

1. Sharp claim: “Red states” account for most high murder rates — unpacking the Third Way/Davis Vanguard line

A June 15, 2025 opinion piece citing research associated with the centrist Third Way argues that 8 of the top 10 states by murder rate were “red”, and that those red states exhibited murder rates roughly 40% higher than states that supported Biden in 2020. The commentary singles out Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia as examples of states with high violent‑crime burdens and ties those outcomes to policy choices such as criminal justice approaches and underinvestment in social supports ^[1]. This is a political framing rooted in cross‑state comparisons of homicide rates rather than a neutral, raw listing of 2024 violent‑crime totals.

2. Independent rankings: US News places New Mexico and Tennessee at the top of violent‑crime lists

A May 8, 2025 report by US News and World Report placed New Mexico as the most dangerous state by per‑capita violent crime for the second consecutive year, with 749 violent offenses per 100,000 residents, and ranked Tennessee and Arkansas fourth and fifth respectively; Louisiana was third ^[2]. That piece distinguishes violent crime from property crime and notes regional variation: Colorado ranked high on property crime but lower on violent crime. US News’s methodology produces a different roster than Third Way’s homicide‑focused claims, highlighting how choice of metric reshapes which states “top” the list.

3. FBI’s 2024 picture: violent crime fell overall — a moderating datapoint

August 2025 reporting based on FBI data documents a 4.5% decline in violent crime in 2024, signaling that national violent‑crime trends are not uniform upward spirals and that year‑to‑year changes can cut against political narratives of a crime “wave.” These FBI releases are population‑wide summaries and stress that local spikes can coexist with national declines; they do not, in the provided summaries, reassert which individual states had the very highest 2024 rates ^{[3] [4]}. The federal data therefore complicates direct attribution of high crime to a party in power, because temporal trends and reporting differences matter.

4. Why definitions and methods change the winners and losers in these lists

Different sources use distinct measures: homicide rate vs. overall violent crime rate vs. combined violent + property indices, and some adjust for population while others emphasize raw counts. The Third Way/Davis Vanguard discussion centers on murder rates, a narrow but politically salient metric ^[1]. US News used per‑capita violent‑crime rates that include assault, robbery, rape and homicide, producing New Mexico at the top ^[2]. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting aggregates and updates change year to year, and policing and reporting practices also influence statistics — details noted in the FBI‑based coverage and in guidance for businesses assessing local risk ^{[3] [5]}.

5. Contradictions, agendas and what each source omits

The Davis Vanguard piece frames the data as proof of “red‑state failures” and traces causes to policy choices ^[1]; that framing suggests a corrective political agenda. US News provides a more neutral ranking but emphasizes tourism‑industry implications and local prevention measures, which reflects different institutional priorities ^{[2] [5]}. FBI summaries emphasize national trend direction without spotlighting a fixed set of “worst” states for 2024, and therefore weaken sweeping claims tying 2024 violent‑crime levels exclusively to partisan governance ^{[3] [4]}. Notably absent across these summaries are standardized, single‑year homicide tables from the FBI for each state with consistent caveats — a gap that fuels divergent claims.

6. Bottom line — whom can you reasonably list as 2024’s highest violent‑crime red states?

Using only the analyses provided, the most consistently named states with high 2024 violent‑crime or murder indicators are Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi, with Kentucky and West Virginia appearing in the Third Way/Davis Vanguard homicide emphasis, and New Mexico flagged by US News when using overall violent‑crime rates ^{[1] [2]}. The precise ranking depends on whether you use homicide rate (favors Third Way’s list) or overall violent‑crime rate (favors US News’s New Mexico lead), and the FBI’s 2024 decline means context and trend matter for interpretation ^{[3] [4]}.

7. How to get a definitive state list for 2024 and next steps

For a definitive, reproducible answer, consult the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting or NIBRS state tables for 2024 homicide and violent‑crime rates, compare per‑capita measures, and then note political control and demographic adjustments. The current literature and commentary show consistent signal—several Republican‑leaning states appear at or near the top on various measures—but different metrics and source agendas produce different “most violent” lists ^{[3] [1] [2]}. If you want, I can synthesize an exact ranked list from the FBI 2024 state tables and show how partisan classification changes the share of high‑rate states.