Fact check: How does the violent crime rate in red states compare to blue states from 2023 to 2024?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the available analyses, there is limited specific data comparing violent crime rates between red and blue states for 2023-2024. However, several key findings emerge:

National Crime Trends ^[1]:

• The FBI reported that violent crime decreased an estimated 4.5% in 2024 compared to 2023 ^[2]
• Homicide rates were 6% lower than 2019 levels according to the Council on Criminal Justice ^[3]
• Violent crime continued to drop across US cities in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024 ^[4]

Historical Red vs. Blue State Data:

• Murder rates in red states were 33% higher than in blue states in both 2021 and 2022, a trend that has persisted for over two decades ^[5]
• Even when removing the largest cities from red states, the murder rate remained higher than in blue states ^[5]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The analyses reveal several critical gaps and methodological considerations:

Research Limitations:

• Empirical social science research has significant limitations when determining the relationship between crime rates and partisanship ^[6]
• Results can be drastically changed by analytical decisions such as the unit of analysis (state vs. county) and inclusion of control variables ^[6]
• The correlation between crime and partisanship may be driven by demographic and economic factors rather than political leanings ^[6]

Data Availability Issues:

• No sources provided direct 2023-2024 red state vs. blue state comparisons despite this being the specific timeframe requested
• Most analyses focus on national trends or city-level data rather than state-level partisan comparisons ^{[2] [3] [7]}

Political Context:

• There are ongoing allegations of crime data manipulation being investigated, particularly regarding Washington D.C. statistics ^[7]
• Political figures like President Trump have made claims about crime that contradict reported statistics showing violent crime is down in big cities ^[7]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself does not contain misinformation, but it assumes that reliable, comparable data exists for the specific 2023-2024 timeframe when the analyses suggest this data may not be readily available or may be methodologically complex to interpret.

Key concerns include:

• Oversimplification of complex relationships - the question implies a straightforward comparison when research shows the relationship between partisanship and crime is influenced by multiple demographic and economic variables ^[6]
• Potential for selective data interpretation - depending on analytical choices (state vs. county level, control variables), results can vary dramatically ^[6]
• Missing acknowledgment of ongoing data reliability concerns - with investigations into potential crime data manipulation, the reliability of recent statistics may be questioned ^[7]

The question would benefit from acknowledging these methodological complexities and the limitations inherent in partisan-based crime comparisons.