What regional or demographic groups shifted most in their views of ICE between 2019 and 2026?
Executive summary
Between 2019 and January 2026 public opinion around U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) shifted sharply: support for abolishing or fundamentally remaking the agency rose from low‑ to mid‑20s percentages in earlier years to roughly the 40–46% range in early 2026, and overall net approval ratings plunged—changes driven primarily by partisan realignment (especially Democratic losses of confidence) and by intensified reactions in regions that experienced high‑visibility enforcement actions and protests (notably Minnesota and several large coastal cities) [1] [2] [3] [4] [5].
1. Partisan realignment: Democrats moved most strongly against ICE
The clearest and best‑documented demographic shift is partisan: Democrats show the largest negative swing in evaluations of ICE, with the agency carrying a net unfavorable rating among Democrats that is dramatically larger than among Republicans, reflecting a deepening partisan divide over immigration enforcement that surveys in 2025–2026 highlight [3] [6].
2. The national center moved left on abolition and reform
Nationwide polling indicates that the broader public attitude toward eliminating or restructuring ICE swung substantially between 2019 and 2026: where support for abolition had been in the high‑20s to low‑30s in earlier years, Civiqs and multiple January 2026 polls reported support in the low‑to‑mid‑40s and near parity or plurality for abolition in some samples [1] [2] [3]. Emerson/YouGov/Economist data and related reporting also document a steep drop in net approval—one outlet described a 30‑point crater in one year—underscoring the magnitude of the change [4] [2].
3. Geography and events: Minnesota and urban protest hubs amplified regional shifts
High‑visibility enforcement actions and subsequent protests acted as accelerants in particular places: the shooting in Minneapolis and an expanded enforcement crackdown there triggered nationwide “Stop ICE” demonstrations and local organizing that correlates with more negative views in affected regions, and reporting documents intensified activism and scrutiny in cities such as Minneapolis and Los Angeles [5] [7] [8]. While national polls were weighted to represent regions, the available reporting ties the most intense short‑term shifts to areas experiencing dramatic enforcement events and large protests [9] [5].
4. Issue cross‑pressures and institutional comparisons complicate the picture
Surveys of federal institutions show that views of ICE did not move in isolation: Pew data from 2025 finds substantial reshuffling in how different partisan groups rate agencies overall, with Democrats turning more negative on several law‑enforcement institutions while Republican assessments rebounded in some cases—meaning ICE’s decline is part of a broader partisan re‑sorting of institutional trust [6]. At the same time, research from the Chicago Council suggests growing public support for more inclusive immigration policies overall, a background trend that likely pushes some segments of the public further away from support for robust enforcement agencies like ICE [8].
5. What cannot be concluded from the provided reporting
The sources permit confident claims about partisan shifts, national movement toward abolition/reform, and the catalytic role of high‑profile regional events, but they do not provide granular, comparable 2019–2026 breakdowns by age, education, or race that would allow concluding which non‑partisan demographic groups (for example, young voters, suburban whites, or Latino communities) changed the most; such claims would require additional, matched longitudinal cross‑tabs not present in the cited polling summaries [3] [1] [6].