Which Republican senators face re-election in 2026?

1. What multiple analyses claim — a clear roster emerges

The assembled analyses converge on a central claim: 22 Republican senators occupy Class II seats up in the 2026 cycle, the class whose terms expire in January 2027 and whose elections occur in November 2026. One source explicitly lists names that match the Class II roster—Capito, Cassidy, Collins, Cornyn, Cotton, Daines, Ernst, Graham, Hagerty, Hyde‑Smith, Lummis, Marshall, McConnell, Mullin, Ricketts, Risch, Rounds, Sullivan, Tillis, and Tuberville—linking the calendar to the 2026 contests ^[3]. Other analyses restate the same 22-seat figure and emphasize that the map is structurally favorable to Republicans because more Democratic seats are in tougher states for incumbents ^{[1] [2]}.

2. Which names and retirements show up repeatedly — agreement and specifics

Several analyses single out Mitch McConnell (KY) and Thom Tillis (NC) as headline retirements or open seats shaping the contest; the June–September analyses note McConnell’s departure and Tillis’s decision as factors reshaping GOP vulnerability and primary dynamics ^{[1] [4]}. The Class II framework means other long‑serving Republicans such as Susan Collins (ME) and John Cornyn (TX) are listed among those up in 2026, with some sources noting primary threats or regional competitiveness—Cornyn is flagged with intraparty challenges and Collins with a historically different state partisan profile ^{[3] [5]}. These repeated name mentions create a consistent roster while highlighting which races analysts view as political fault lines ^[4].

3. Competitive picture: battlegrounds and strategic narratives

The analyses present mixed but intersecting views about where the competitive fights will be. One analyst set expects Republicans to have favorable terrain with opportunities in Georgia and Michigan, while Democrats are urged to defend vulnerable seats and target open Republican seats in places like North Carolina and Maine ^{[6] [4]}. Another interactive tracking source emphasizes special election complications in Florida and Ohio that could change the arithmetic, noting special elections and retirements can alter the significance of the 22-seat Republican slate ^[2]. Across accounts, the takeaway is that the numerical advantage on paper masks several highly contestable individual races.

4. Points of disagreement and uncertain or missing information

Discrepancies among the analyses revolve around detail rather than the headline: the exact list of who has formally announced retirements, where special elections will occur, and the evolving primary threats. Some entries referenced candidate-level developments like a primary challenge to Cornyn and Joni Ernst’s retirement in Iowa, while other items were clearly boilerplate map descriptions lacking candidate confirmations ^{[5] [6]}. Several sources supplied no publication timestamps or had null dates, creating uncertainty over freshness for some claims; where dates are provided, they range into 2025, indicating much of this reporting is contemporaneous with declared retirements and early forecasts ^{[4] [5]}.

5. Sources, possible agendas, and analytical framing to watch

The materials include map‑focused trackers, partisan forecasting analyses, and law‑firm primer pieces; each brings a different framing: tracker sites emphasize raw seat counts and geographic shifts, advocacy‑adjacent groups frame open seats as strategic opportunities, and legal or consulting commentaries spotlight candidate filing and primary rules ^{[2] [4] [5]}. That variety explains why one source stresses Republican opportunities while another catalogs retirements and intra‑party fights. Readers should note these frames because methodology and institutional perspective shape which races are highlighted as “competitive.”

6. Bottom line — what is reliably known and what to watch next

The reliable, cross‑checked finding is that 22 Republican senators are scheduled to face the 2026 ballot as Class II incumbents; that list includes several marquee names and at least two widely reported retirements that will produce open contests. The less settled elements are candidate lineups, special election outcomes, and primary dynamics that could reshape the map before ballots are cast ^{[3] [1] [2]}. Watch formal retirement announcements, special‑election calendars, and state primary filings for definitive updates; those events will convert the shared 22‑seat framework into a fully fleshed set of races with clear partisan implications ^{[4] [5]}.