Fact check: How do Republican states' gun laws impact crime rates in 2024?

1. What supporters and critics actually claim — sharp contrasts that matter

Analyses presented here draw two sharply different narratives about permitless carry and right-to-carry laws. Critics point to time-series and state-comparison studies finding increases in shooting deaths and violent crime after permitless carry; The Trace’s multi-state analysis reports 16 of 20 states that enacted permitless carry between 2015–2022 experienced more shooting deaths afterward, with notable spikes such as West Virginia and Missouri ^{[1] [6]}. Academic work summarized here also links right-to-carry policies to higher violent crime, increased gun theft, and lower clearance rates, including a May 2025 Journal of Urban Economics study reporting a 20% rise in violent crime in large cities tied to such laws ^[2]. Proponents counter with state-level snapshots and industry reports claiming no consistent rise and even lower average violent-crime rates in many permitless states, citing a 2025 Ammo.com summary that more than half of permitless states had lower crime after enactment and that permitless states’ average violent crime was about 10% below the national average ^[3]. These opposing claims reflect fundamentally different choices about timeframe, outcome measures, and comparison groups, and each side emphasizes different subsets of states.

2. Where multiple peer-reviewed studies point in the same direction — restrictive laws and lower firearm mortality

Peer-reviewed and policy-aggregate studies in 2024–2025 indicate a consistent association between stricter firearm regimes and reduced firearm deaths. A JAMA Network Open study finds the most restrictive policy regime tied to roughly a 20% reduction in firearm deaths, equating to about 70,000 fewer deaths over a decade ending in 2020 ^[5]. Everytown’s 2024 rankings synthesize state laws and mortality data to argue that stronger safety policies correlate with lower gun deaths and project hundreds of thousands of lives could be saved if all states matched the top performers ^[7]. Another multi-policy analysis links broad state policy environments and nonfirearm regulatory tools to lower gun violence, emphasizing that comprehensive regulation, not a single law, is associated with reduced fatalities ^[8]. These findings underscore a cross-study consensus that policy intensity matters and that cumulative regulatory frameworks are associated with lower firearm mortality.

3. Studies showing permissive carry laws correlate with worse outcomes — what they measure and when

Several analyses specifically target carry-law changes and report increases in shootings or violent crime after liberalization. The Trace’s state-by-state post-enactment comparisons show more shooting deaths in 16 of 20 permitless states and large percentage increases in affected states like West Virginia and Missouri ^{[1] [6]}. The Journal of Urban Economics study found right-to-carry laws correspond with a 20% rise in violent crime in large cities, a surge in gun theft, and declines in clearance rates — outcomes that would plausibly amplify criminal activity and impede enforcement ^[2]. A separate overview claiming federal firearm restrictions raised homicide rates while relaxed laws decreased them ^[4] stands out for its contrarian statistical claim and should be weighed against the broader peer-reviewed literature for methodology and variable control; it is not a consensus position within the reviewed academic work.

4. Why findings conflict — methods, timing, and political selection matter

Discrepancies across studies largely stem from differences in research design: some use short pre/post windows around law changes, others use aggregated cross-state panels over many years; some measure shooting deaths specifically, others broader violent-crime rates. Selection bias and confounders also matter: states that liberalize carry may differ on policing, economic trends, drug markets, and COVID-era disruptions, which can drive crime independently of gun law changes ^{[9] [8]}. Advocacy-linked syntheses such as Everytown’s emphasize cumulative policy effects and project avoided deaths, while industry or pro-permit summaries like Ammo.com highlight favorable state-level trends; both are susceptible to agenda-driven framing that influences which states and years are included ^{[7] [3]}. Cross-study consensus forms when designs account for pre-existing trends and multiple confounders; where that control is weaker, results diverge.

5. What this means for Republican-governed states in 2024 — cautious policy takeaways

For Republican states that expanded permitless carry by 2024, the weight of multi-study evidence suggests a credible risk of increased shooting deaths and higher violent-crime outcomes in many contexts, though some states show stable or lower aggregate crime depending on local factors ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Comprehensive, multi-policy approaches correlated with reduced firearm mortality imply that single-law rollbacks on background checks, safe-storage, or extreme-risk protections could erode population-level gains ^{[5] [8]}. Policymakers should therefore evaluate local enforcement, ancillary regulations, and social determinants alongside carry statutes; academic studies and investigative analyses converge on the point that law change effects are conditional and context-dependent, making simple one-size-fits-all claims about Republican states and crime rates for 2024 misleading without careful, transparent longitudinal analysis ^{[4] [5]}.