Fact check: La russie est en train de gagner la guerre en Ukraine

1. Summary of the results

Based on the analyses provided, there is insufficient evidence to support the claim that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine. The sources examined provide mixed and limited information about the current state of the conflict:

• Limited territorial gains mentioned: Only one source indicates that the Russian army claimed to have taken a new village in the Dnipropetrovsk region ^[1], which could be interpreted as territorial gain for Russia, but this does not constitute evidence of overall victory.
• Ongoing military operations: Multiple sources confirm that military attacks and operations continue on both sides ^{[2] [3]}, suggesting an active conflict rather than a decisive Russian victory.
• Continued international support for Ukraine: Sources indicate that NATO continues military exercises and defense ministers' meetings to support Ukraine ^[4], and discussions between the United States and Ukraine regarding the use of American weapons against Russian targets are ongoing ^[3].
• Diplomatic efforts persist: Several sources mention ongoing diplomatic talks and negotiations ^{[3] [5]}, which typically occur when neither side has achieved decisive victory.

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original statement lacks crucial context about the complexity and evolving nature of the conflict:

• Air warfare dynamics: One analysis reveals that Putin's strategy focuses on air superiority due to fierce ground resistance, while Ukraine works to secure its airspace ^[6], indicating a contested battlefield rather than Russian dominance.
• International dimension: The sources show significant Western military and diplomatic support continues for Ukraine, including NATO exercises and weapons discussions ^{[4] [3]}, suggesting the conflict extends beyond bilateral Russian-Ukrainian dynamics.
• Threat escalation: Vladimir Putin's threats to provide missiles to entities hostile to the West ^[3] indicate Russia may be seeking to expand the conflict rather than consolidating victory.
• Historical context: The war began with Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022 ^[3], and the ongoing nature of diplomatic efforts suggests neither side has achieved decisive victory after nearly three years of conflict.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The statement "La russie est en train de gagner la guerre en Ukraine" presents several problematic elements:

• Oversimplification: The claim presents a binary "winning/losing" narrative when the analyses show a complex, ongoing conflict with multiple dimensions including ground operations, air warfare, and international diplomacy ^{[6] [4] [3]}.
• Lack of supporting evidence: None of the sources provide comprehensive evidence supporting Russian victory. The single mention of a village capture ^[1] is insufficient to support claims of overall victory in a conflict spanning multiple regions and involving international actors.
• Ignores continued resistance: The sources indicate "résistance acharnée au sol" (fierce ground resistance) against Russian forces ^[6], contradicting the narrative of Russian success.
• Potential propaganda value: Such definitive statements about Russian victory could serve Russian state interests by projecting strength and inevitability, potentially influencing public opinion and international support for Ukraine. Conversely, Ukrainian leadership and Western allies benefit from narratives emphasizing Ukrainian resilience and the need for continued support.

The statement appears to be premature and unsupported by the available evidence, which suggests an ongoing, contested conflict rather than a clear Russian victory.