Fact check: Which blue states have the lowest violent crime rates in the US as of 2024?

1. What the original analyses actually claim — a quick inventory that matters

The three analysis groups present overlapping but not identical claims: one lists Hawaii and Massachusetts with specific violent-crime rates and mentions Rhode Island and Connecticut’s low rates or improvements ^[1]. Another set emphasizes Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island as top safest states using multi-factor safety indices ^{[4] [2]}. A third group highlights New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, and Virginia among safe states, and notes Vermont’s particularly low assault rates and strong social measures ^{[4] [3] [5]}. These are claims about relative safety, not a uniform metric, and each source uses different composites and publication dates ^{[1] [2] [5]}.

2. The strongest, most specific numbers and where they came from

The most concrete numeric statements in the set appear in the PropertyClub-derived item claiming Hawaii at 2.5 violent crimes per 1,000 and Massachusetts at 3.1 per 1,000, plus Rhode Island at 1.72 per 1,000; Connecticut is described as hitting a ten-year low though its 2024 rate wasn’t given ^[1]. Forbes Advisor supplies a specific Virginia violent-crime rate of 2.34 per 1,000, which positions Virginia among lower-rate blue states ^[5]. These numeric citations are useful but not universally standardized, and readers should note each source’s reporting date when interpreting 2024 comparisons ^{[1] [5]}.

3. Where rankings converge — clear patterns across sources

All three analysis clusters consistently place Northeast states (Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont) among the nation’s safer places on measures that include violent crime, plus isolated mentions of Hawaii and Virginia as low-violent-crime blue states ^{[1] [4] [3]}. This regional concentration points to a convergence that the Northeast dominates low violent-crime rankings among blue states in these reports, though the exact order and choice of top five vary. That pattern holds across 2024–2025 publications cited, signaling a consistent cross-source signal despite methodological differences ^{[4] [3]}.

4. Methodological clashes: why one list shows Hawaii while another emphasizes New Jersey

Differences among the analyses stem from how ‘safety’ is defined: some studies rely on FBI-style violent-crime rates per capita, while others use multi-factor safety indices including healthcare, transportation, and accident fatalities, or composite “risk scores” for raising a family ^{[1] [2] [4]}. A state with a low violent-crime rate but weaker scores on other factors can drop in composite rankings, and vice versa. This explains why New Jersey or Massachusetts can top one list while Hawaii appears on another — they simply weight components differently and use different time windows ^{[2] [1]}.

5. Timing matters: publication dates and the evolving picture

The analyzed materials span publication dates from early 2024 through late 2025, with several explicitly dated 2024 and others on or after January 2025 ^{[1] [3] [2]}. Since violent-crime rates can shift year-to-year and some sources comment on trends (for example, Connecticut’s ten-year low noted in 2022 referenced in a 2024 piece), answers framed “as of 2024” require care: the most directly relevant numerical claims to 2024 come from pieces dated in 2024, while 2025 rankings may reflect later changes or alternative metrics ^{[1] [5]}.

6. Missing context and caution: what these lists leave out

None of the analyses uniformly reports a single, nationwide, FBI-standard violent-crime rate table limited to states that voted Democratic (“blue”) in the 2020s; instead they mix composites, family-safety indices, and selective per-capita figures ^{[1] [4] [3]}. Important omitted considerations include intra-state variation (city vs. suburb), the time period used for rate calculations, the exact crimes counted as “violent,” and demographic or policing-policy differences. These omissions mean a state labeled “safe” can still have high-violence pockets or recent trend reversals not captured in the cited summaries ^{[1] [3]}.

7. Short, evidence-based answer: which blue states have the lowest violent-crime indicators in these analyses

Synthesizing the provided material for 2024-focused claims, the blue states most consistently identified with low violent-crime rates or top safety ranks are Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Hawaii, Connecticut, and Virginia; Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey appear most frequently at or near the top across sources, while Hawaii and Vermont feature where per-capita violent-crime figures or family-safety metrics are emphasized ^{[1] [4] [3] [5]}. This list reflects consensus across different methods, not a single definitive ranking.

8. Bottom line for users seeking a definitive 2024 ranking

The provided analyses point to a clear regional pattern — Northeastern blue states plus a few others repeatedly rank low on violent-crime measures — but do not constitute a uniform, single-source FBI-style state-by-state violent-crime table for 2024. For a precise state-by-state violent-crime rate “as of 2024,” consult the primary crime-rate datasets cited by each study or an FBI/official state report underlying these summaries; the analyses here are best used to identify consensus low-crime blue states and to flag methodological caveats ^{[1] [2] [5]}.