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Fact check: What country will I be safest from war in, in the next 20 years?
1. Summary of the results
Based on the analyses provided, several countries consistently emerge as the safest options for avoiding war in the next 20 years:
Top-tier safe countries:
- Iceland appears most frequently across sources, ranking as the world's most peaceful country in the 2024 Global Peace Index [1] and the safest country to travel to in 2025 [2]
- New Zealand is mentioned in multiple analyses as both a top peaceful country [1] and one of the safest in the event of World War III due to its geographical isolation [3]
- Singapore ranks highly for both peace [1] and travel safety [2]
Other consistently safe options include:
- Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Portugal, and Denmark - all appearing in the top 10 most peaceful countries [1]
- Fiji and Antarctica are specifically mentioned as safe havens in case of global conflict due to their remote locations [3]
The safety rankings are based on comprehensive criteria including low crime rates, stable governance, high socio-economic development, minimal involvement in armed conflicts, strong health infrastructure, low militarization, and infrequent natural disasters [1] [2].
2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints
The original question lacks several important considerations that the analyses reveal:
Geographic factors matter significantly: Countries like New Zealand, Fiji, and Iceland benefit from geographical isolation that makes them less likely to be drawn into regional conflicts [3]. This geographic advantage isn't just about current peace but about strategic irrelevance in potential future conflicts.
Different types of safety: The analyses distinguish between general peace/safety and wartime safety specifically. Some countries may be peaceful now but could become targets due to their strategic importance or alliances [3].
Evolving global risks: The Global Risk Forecast 2025 and various conflict trackers suggest that risk patterns are constantly changing [4] [5]. What appears safe today may not remain so for 20 years.
Economic and political stability: The analyses emphasize that safety from war correlates strongly with stable governance and socio-economic development [1], suggesting that countries with strong institutions are better positioned to avoid conflicts.
3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement
The original question, while straightforward, contains an implicit assumption that may be problematic:
Predictability bias: The question assumes that war safety can be accurately predicted 20 years into the future. However, the analyses show that global risk assessments are updated regularly [4] [6], indicating that geopolitical situations change rapidly and unpredictably.
Single-factor focus: By focusing solely on war safety, the question ignores other critical factors that the analyses reveal are interconnected with conflict risk, such as natural disasters, economic stability, and health infrastructure [2].
Western-centric perspective: Most of the "safest" countries identified in the analyses are developed Western nations or Western-aligned countries, which may reflect reporting bias in the sources rather than objective safety measures.
The question also doesn't account for the fact that neutrality and non-alignment may be more important factors than traditional measures of national strength or development when it comes to avoiding future conflicts [3].