Self deporting immigrants since Trump
Executive summary
The Department of Homeland Security under the Trump administration has repeatedly reported very large numbers of people who have "self-deported"—official statements cite figures ranging from roughly 1.6 million to 2.2 million or 1.9 million self-deportations at different points, and DHS claims more than 2.5 million people left the U.S. when combined with formal removals [1] [2] [3] [4]. Independent analysts and news organizations warn those self-deportation totals rely on unconventional methods and survey estimates that make the headline figures controversial and likely to overstate voluntary departures [5] [6].
1. What DHS is claiming and how big the numbers are
DHS and the White House have publicized sweeping totals billed as "removed or self-deported," stating at various moments that roughly 2 million to nearly 3 million people have left the country since January 2025, with the "self-deported" portion reported by DHS as roughly 1.6 million, 1.9 million, 2.2 million, or 1.9 million in different releases and fact sheets [1] [7] [3] [4] [2]. The department pairs those estimates with conventional counts of deportations and removals—figures that TRAC and ICE data show in the hundreds of thousands rather than millions of formal removals [8] [7].
2. Why analysts say the "self-deportation" label is methodologically unusual
Journalists and analysts have flagged that DHS's method for estimating self-deportations departs from standard enforcement tallies: the administration has used survey-based estimates, app usage metrics (the CBP Home app), and population-survey snapshots as part of its calculation rather than relying solely on removals and returns documented by immigration agencies, a combination experts call "unorthodox" and cautionary [5] [6]. Axios reported that much of the large headline total comes from voluntary-survey shifts in foreign‑born population estimates and related metrics that are not normally counted as deportations [5].
3. Concrete enforcement counts vs. the broader headline claim
By contrast, conventional enforcement statistics recorded by ICE and tracked by researchers show far fewer formal interior removals and deportations: TRAC tallied roughly 234,000 removals after Trump assumed office in one dataset and ICE itself reported hundreds of thousands of removals across fiscal periods, numbers that are substantial but far below the multi‑million DHS "removed or self‑deported" marketing [8] [7]. Newsweek's FOIA-based reporting likewise found that documented deportations from detention centers numbered in the tens or low hundreds of thousands through mid‑2025, and characterized voluntary departures as a smaller pool that the agency was trying to amplify [6].
4. Tools and incentives DHS has used to encourage voluntary departures
DHS repurposed tools such as the CBP Home app—formerly CBP One—to facilitate voluntary departures and has publicly promoted incentives like travel payments and a $1,000 offer in some messaging as part of the self‑deportation pathway, steps that make voluntary return an administratively supported option rather than purely private decisions [7] [5]. Migration Policy Institute and other policy observers have noted the administration has pursued a broad strategy of interior enforcement, data sharing and incentives to increase departures and returns [9].
5. Broader context, pushback and policy implications
Critics argue the administration's framing inflates the appearance of a mass exodus and masks aggressive interior arrests that broaden enforcement beyond those with violent convictions; reporting and watchdogs have documented rises in non‑criminal arrests in some data and raised humanitarian concerns, including detention conditions and detainee deaths, which complicate any celebratory reading of headline exit totals [10]. Meanwhile, census and population estimates show a sharp slowdown in net immigration that aligns with a drop in arrivals and greater departures, suggesting demographic effects that extend beyond contested DHS tallies [11].
6. Bottom line — what can be stated with confidence
It is verifiable that DHS has publicly claimed millions of people "self‑deported" since January 2025 and paired that claim with hundreds of thousands of formal removals [2] [1] [7] [4], but independent reporting and analyst commentary make clear the methodology for the "self‑deported" figure is unconventional, uses survey and administrative proxies, and should be interpreted cautiously rather than taken as a straightforward count of documented voluntary returns [5] [6] [9]. Where available sources are silent about specific calculation steps, this reporting does not assert those absent details and instead flags methodological limits reported by journalists and researchers [5] [6].