What share of border encounters since 2021 resulted in migrants remaining in the U.S. (released, paroled, or pending removal) versus being expelled?
Executive summary
From fiscal 2021 onward, U.S. government encounter statistics show a shifting mix of outcomes: during the period when Title 42 expulsions were in effect (March 2020–May 2023) a majority of many monthly encounters were expelled, while after Title 42 ended expulsions declined and a larger share of encounters resulted in migrants remaining in the United States under Title 8 processes (released, paroled, or pending removal); however, available public sources do not provide a single, authoritative cumulative percentage for “since 2021” without assembling raw monthly CBP encounter tables and reconciling duplicates and policy shifts [1] [2] [3].
1. What the official encounter data actually measure and why that matters
CBP “encounters” combine Border Patrol Title 8 apprehensions, Office of Field Operations Title 8 inadmissibles, and Title 42 expulsions, and the agency’s public tables thus count procedural outcomes (apprehension vs. inadmissible vs. expulsion) rather than unique individuals or final legal statuses, meaning a single person who is encountered multiple times can appear more than once in the totals [1] [3] [2].
2. The Title 42 era: expulsions dominated many months in 2021–2022
During the height of the Title 42 public‑health expulsions, a large share of encounters were expelled rather than processed under Title 8 — for example CBP data and secondary analyses point to expulsion rates that in some months of 2021 exceeded half or more of encounters (Pew reports 54% expulsions in September 2021 and documents earlier months with higher shares) and CBP’s later summaries and independent analyses cite millions of expulsions under Title 42 through May 2023 [4] [5] [2].
3. The post‑Title 42 shift: more encounters result in release, parole, or immigration court processing
When the Title 42 authority ended in May 2023 the mix changed: expulsions ceased, CBP began processing more people under Title 8 pathways, and several analyses and CBP statements indicate the share of encounters resulting in removals/returns or expulsions fell and the share remaining in the U.S. as released, paroled, or pending removal increased — though DHS/CBP have also pointed to policy actions (e.g., the June 2024 Presidential Proclamation) that later increased removals and returns again, complicating a neat before/after split [2] [6].
4. How large is the “since 2021” universe and what rough shares can be gleaned from public reporting
Advocates and congressional offices report large cumulative encounter totals: a House Committee fact sheet cited more than 10.8 million nationwide encounters since FY2021, with roughly 8.7 million at the Southwest border, while CBP has said recent years included both millions of expulsions under Title 42 and large numbers of Title 8 removals and returns — from those pieces it is clear that during FY2021–FY2023 expulsions accounted for a very large share of encounters, whereas FY2024 and later months show a higher share of Title 8 outcomes and removals/returns [7] [6] [5].
5. Why an exact, single “share since 2021” is not available in the supplied sources
None of the provided sources publish a single cumulative percentage that divides all encounters from the beginning of FY2021 through the present into “remained in the U.S. (released, paroled, pending removal)” versus “expelled”; instead the sources provide monthly or fiscal‑year encounter tables, snapshots (e.g., Sept 2021’s 54% expulsions), policy timelines (Title 42 ending May 2023), and competing interpretations from DHS and congressional critics — assembling a precise overall share requires aggregating CBP’s encounter rows and deciding how to treat repeated encounters and different outcome categories, a task beyond the summaries given here [1] [4] [2] [3].
6. Practical bottom line and alternative interpretations
The defensible conclusion from the public reporting is that a large portion of encounters in FY2021–mid‑2023 were expulsions (often a majority in many months), while the period after May 2023 saw expulsions end and a rising share of encounters leading to people remaining in the U.S. under Title 8 processes or awaiting removal — exact cumulative shares “since 2021” are not reported as a single figure in the sources provided, so any precise percentage offered without re‑aggregating CBP encounter data would be speculative; stakeholders emphasize different narratives (DHS highlighting removals/returns and recent declines in encounters, congressional critics highlighting total encounter volumes and prior expulsion counts), so readers should treat headline percentages as highly sensitive to the time window and to whether encounter counts are deduplicated [6] [7] [5] [1].