Which U.S. House district had the smallest margin of victory in 2024?
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Executive summary
The closest U.S. House race in the 2024 general election was California’s 13th Congressional District, where Democrat Adam Gray defeated incumbent Republican John Duarte by an extraordinarily thin margin — reported as 0.09 percentage points (187 votes) — making it the single smallest margin of victory among all 435 House contests (Ballotpedia; Ballotpedia News) [1] [2]. Major outlets and official compilations flagged the contest as decisive for the final partisan arithmetic in the incoming House, underscoring how a handful of ballots in one district can shape chamber control (BBC; NatLawReview) [3] [4].
1. The raw result: a handful of votes, an outsized consequence
Ballotpedia’s post‑election margin analysis identifies California’s 13th District as the narrowest U.S. House outcome in 2024, recording Adam Gray’s victory over John Duarte by 0.09 percentage points — a difference Ballotpedia quantified as 187 votes — a margin confirmed in Ballotpedia’s follow‑up reporting on House MOVs [1] [2]. The BBC, citing CBS News, described the same result as a win by “fewer than 200 votes,” a figure that matches Ballotpedia’s arithmetic and highlights how razor‑thin the contest was on a day that otherwise decided hundreds of House races [3].
2. Why this race mattered beyond its geography
The Gray‑Duarte outcome carried national significance because it helped determine the balance of the incoming House; outlets tracking final returns and the congressional tally treated the district as pivotal to the narrow majority figure for Republicans versus Democrats in the 119th Congress (NatLawReview; Ballotpedia) [4] [2]. Ballotpedia’s analysis of margins across the House also noted that 2024 produced the narrowest average MOV since their records began, underlining that unusually tight races like CA‑13 were part of a broader competitiveness trend [2].
3. Competing close finishes and the context of ‘closest race’ claims
Other precinct‑level nail‑biters received attention — for example, Ballotpedia lists Elissa Slotkin’s win over Mike Rogers at a 0.34‑point margin as among the very tightest contests — but those margins were still wider than CA‑13’s 0.09 percentage‑point gap [1]. Broader aggregators such as 270toWin and Ballotpedia produced district‑by‑district MOV tables and maps showing CA‑13 at the bottom of the list; 270toWin’s repositories also serve as corroborating reference points for close House contests in 2024 [5] [1].
4. Sources, verification and limits of public reporting
The assessment that CA‑13 was the smallest MOV rests on post‑election compilations by Ballotpedia and related news reports — the dataset Ballotpedia published lists every House margin and highlights Adam Gray’s win by 187 votes [2] [1]. BBC and other outlets reported the “fewer than 200 votes” figure independently, which aligns with Ballotpedia. If official state canvass documents, county recount certifications, or later legal challenges produced any adjustments, those primary documents would supersede secondary aggregators; the sources consulted here do not provide raw county certification files, so the account is limited to these established compilations and news reports [3] [2].
5. Alternative interpretations and the politics of reporting close races
Some observers emphasize that narrow margins are not just statistics but catalysts for recounts, litigation and local scrutiny; others argue that the national narrative can overinflate one district’s symbolic importance relative to broader patterns of partisan change [4] [6]. Ballotpedia’s macro analysis shows 2024’s House MOVs were unusually compressed overall, lending context to why CA‑13 stood out as the single tightest race without being a statistical anomaly in an otherwise lopsided cycle [2]. Reporting outlets tend to highlight contests that affect chamber control, which creates an implicit agenda to dramatize close races tied to majority math — a dynamic visible in coverage that connects CA‑13 directly to the partisan split in the incoming House [4] [3].