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How has the SNAP improper payment rate changed since 2010?
Executive Summary
Since 2010 the SNAP improper‑payment (payment error) rate has risen sharply from roughly 3.8 percent in FY2010 to about 11–12 percent in recent years, reflecting a near‑tripling of the rate and translating into roughly $10 billion in annual improper payments; the rise accelerated after 2019 amid pandemic changes and policy adjustments that broadened what counts as overpayments [1] [2] [3]. Analysts and government reports agree on the upward trajectory but differ on precise annual figures and on explanations—some emphasize program integrity and administrative capacity, others stress pandemic flexibilities and methodological changes that increased measured error rates [4] [5] [6].
1. Why the headline rate looks much worse now — a threefold jump that demands context
The raw comparison between the FY2010 national payment error rate of about 3.8% and recent rates near 11–11.7% implies a roughly threefold increase in SNAP improper payments, a change documented in USDA reports and independent coverage [2] [1]. This jump reflects both real increases in identified overpayments and measurement and policy changes: pandemic-era administrative flexibilities, sharp caseload growth, and a 2022 policy that counted entire benefit amounts as overpayments when procedural errors were found all pushed the reported overpayment share higher [4] [2]. Observers note that part of the rise is an artifact of how errors are defined and counted, even as absolute dollar amounts of improper payments rose into the billions [6] [7].
2. Numbers and timelines: what different sources report and why they vary
USDA Quality Control reports and summaries show the combined payment error rate moving from around 3.8% in FY2010 to 11.54% in FY2022 (9.84% overpayments + 1.70% underpayments), with FY2023/FY2024 estimates near 11.6–11.7% [2] [5] [1]. Independent outlets and policy groups present similar trends but sometimes different baselines—some cite a 2012 baseline near 2% for overpayments alone and others use the combined NPER—producing apparent discrepancies when pieces conflate overpayment and combined rates [6] [4]. The variance also stems from missing or adjusted years in public tables and from differences between overpayment-only and combined figures; careful comparison requires matching the same metric and fiscal year [8].
3. Causes debated in reporting: administration, policy, pandemic and measurement
Coverage and analyses point to three overlapping drivers: administrative strain and errors as caseloads rose; policy shifts that broadened what counts as overpayments; and measurement artifacts linked to Quality Control methods and pandemic-era changes to eligibility verification [4] [6] [2]. Some sources highlight increased spending on program integrity that nevertheless coincided with higher measured overpayments, suggesting diminishing returns or a lag between investment and impact [6]. Other analysts emphasize that temporary COVID flexibilities and later counting rules produced a one‑time jump in measured rates rather than only a structural erosion of accuracy, a point that affects how policymakers interpret the data [4].
4. Dollars, state impacts, and policy consequences — the real stakes behind percentages
An improper‑payment rate rising into the low double digits translates into billions of dollars in annual improper SNAP outlays; multiple analyses put that figure around $10 billion in recent fiscal years, with estimated totals varying by the exact rate and outlay base [6] [7]. Policy implications include potential pressure to tighten eligibility rules or to shift costs and accountability to states, proposals that would have major programmatic and political consequences. Some reporting flags an agenda among fiscal hawks to use higher error rates to justify cuts or administrative penalties, while other advocates caution that stricter rules could increase underpayments and harm needy households [6] [4].
5. Where the record leaves us and what to watch next
The established fact is a clear upward trend in SNAP payment error rates from the early 2010s to the present, with the largest jumps after 2019 and methodological changes in 2022–2023 that amplified measured overpayments [2] [4] [1]. Going forward, expect scrutiny on Quality Control methodology, federal guidance tightening or relaxing verification standards, and state‑level budgetary responses if federal policy shifts impose new financial responsibilities—each development will change both the measured rate and the real incidence of errors. Watch future USDA Quality Control reports for reconciled year‑to‑year series and for explicit breakdowns of overpayment versus underpayment drivers, which are essential for fair interpretation and policy response [2] [5].