What percent of the somali-american community voted for trump in 2024
Executive summary
Available polling and reporting indicate a clear majority of Somali Americans continued to favor the Democratic ticket in 2024, while Republican support in parts of the community rose to roughly the low-to-mid 20s in some Minnesota polls — for example, a Bayan Research Center survey found 23% of Somalis in its sample said they planned to vote for Trump in 2024, while 55% backed Kamala Harris [1]. National analyses note that naturalized citizens as a group were narrowly split (51% Harris, 47% Trump) but do not break out Somali Americans specifically [2].
1. A community still majority-Democratic, but with notable GOP gains
Local polling of Somali voters in Minnesota — where the largest U.S. Somali diaspora lives — shows the community remained majority-Democratic in 2024, yet with increased Republican support compared with 2020. The St. Anthony-based Bayan Research Center’s online poll of 343 respondents (79% from Minnesota) reported 55% backing Harris and 23% for Trump, with 10% for a third-party candidate and 12% undecided [1]. That 23% figure represents a roughly 10-point increase in self-reported Trump support among Somalis versus 2020 in that survey [1].
2. Polling scope and limitations: small samples, regional focus
The strongest numerical evidence about Somali voting in 2024 comes from a single, small online poll focused largely on Minnesota (343 responses, 79% from Minnesota), which limits national generalizability [1]. National data sets and major research centers do not publish a clear, nationwide Somali-American vote breakdown; Pew’s national post‑election analysis treats “naturalized citizens” broadly (51% Harris, 47% Trump) but does not disaggregate by country of origin such as Somalia [2]. Available sources do not provide a definitive national percentage for Somali-American support of Trump in 2024 beyond these regional and community-focused reports.
3. Why some Somalis moved toward Trump — reported motivations
Local reporting and interviews attribute the GOP gains to concrete local issues. Journalists and community voices cite concerns about the economy, school curricula and LGBTQ issues as motivating socially conservative Somali voters toward Republican candidates; business owners and parents interviewed said economic and cultural issues pushed some to consider Trump [3] [4]. Analysts quoted in those pieces also note community socioeconomic change — rising middle-class status and conservative social values among some Somali Americans — as factors behind shifting political preferences [3].
4. Countervailing voices and community leaders’ stance
Community organizations and Democratic activists vigorously dispute the notion of a mass switch to Trump. VOA coverage and other local reporting highlight Somali Democratic organizing and declarations from leaders who say “there’s no way the community will vote for Trump,” arguing his policies benefit the wealthy and clash with Somali priorities [5]. The Bayan poll itself still found a majority backing Harris, underscoring internal divisions rather than a wholesale partisan realignment [1].
5. National context: immigrants, naturalized citizens, and voting swings
Nationally, research shows immigrant voters and naturalized citizens were more electorally competitive in 2024 than in 2020: Pew reports naturalized citizens split 51%–47% for Harris vs. Trump in 2024, a sharp shift from 2020 [2]. That national trend suggests groups with immigrant backgrounds can swing and that increases in Republican support among specific immigrant communities — including Somalis in Minnesota — fit a broader pattern. However, Pew does not provide Somalia-specific national figures [2].
6. Reporting since the election: political backlash and targeting
Post‑election coverage highlights a fraught political environment: national leaders and outlets report renewed federal scrutiny and rhetoric targeting Somalis in Minnesota, which has heightened fear and attention within the community [6] [7] [8] [9]. These developments complicate simple vote‑share narratives by interweaving criminal‑fraud investigations, immigration policy threats, and incendiary presidential comments with local political dynamics [6] [7] [9].
7. What is known — and what is not
What is known from available reporting: a Minnesota-centered poll found 23% of sampled Somalis planned to vote for Trump and 55% for Harris in 2024 [1]; community reporting documents both growing Republican sympathy on some issues and strong Democratic organizing [3] [5] [4]. What is not found in current reporting: a definitive, nationwide percentage of Somali-American votes for Trump in 2024; major national surveys cited do not disaggregate by Somali origin specifically [2].
Bottom line: local evidence — especially in Minnesota — shows increasing but minority Trump support (about 23% in one community poll), while national data sources do not provide a Somalia-specific nationwide figure [1] [2].