What percentage of Somali-American eligible voters cast ballots in the 2024 US general election?
Executive summary
There is no published, reliable statistic in the provided reporting that gives a single percentage for how many Somali‑American eligible voters cast ballots in the 2024 U.S. general election; major data releases and community reporting available here either group Somalis into broader categories (e.g., “Muslim” or “Black/African” voters) or report qualitative accounts of turnout and voting preferences rather than a precise turnout rate [1] [2] [3]. Attempts to produce a definitive Somali‑American turnout percentage from these sources would require extrapolation beyond what the sources support.
1. What the question actually asks and why it’s hard to answer with available reporting
The user is asking for a specific turnout rate — the share of Somali‑American eligible voters who cast ballots in 2024 — which requires either survey data that identifies respondents as Somali (or Somali‑American by ancestry) or administrative turnout counts linked to ancestry, neither of which appears in the supplied sources; the Census CPS Voting and Registration Supplement provides the most comprehensive national turnout tables by race and Hispanic origin but does not, in the excerpts provided, break out Somali‑American turnout specifically [1]. National turnout aggregators like the University of Florida Election Lab and summary turnout trackers report votes and estimated voting‑eligible populations overall but do not disaggregate to ancestry groups such as Somali Americans in the materials supplied [4] [5].
2. What the available datasets do and don’t show
The U.S. Census’s CPS Voting and Registration Supplement is described by the Census as the most comprehensive source on the social and demographic composition of the electorate and produces tables by race and Hispanic origin, age, education and income — but the supplied description does not indicate that it produces a Somali‑ancestry cell, and the excerpted press release does not contain a Somali‑specific turnout percentage [1]. The University of Florida Election Lab and other turnout trackers explain methods for estimating the voting‑eligible population and total ballots counted but operate at the national and state levels, not by narrow ancestry groups in the materials provided [4] [5].
3. Community reporting and exit polling: insight, not a definitive rate
Community journalism and advocacy polling provide context but not a census‑style turnout rate for Somali‑Americans. Minnesota reporting and community outlets document active mobilization, town halls and shifting candidate preferences in Somali communities — such as weaker support for Democrats in parts of Minneapolis and qualitative accounts of Somalis moving toward Republican candidates on economic and social issues — but these pieces focus on voting behavior and attitudes rather than reporting a Somali‑specific turnout percentage [3] [6] [7]. CAIR’s exit poll of Muslim voters sampled 1,575 verified American Muslim voters and reports national Muslim voting patterns and turnout questions, but that dataset covers the broader Muslim population and is not a Somali‑ancestry turnout estimate [2].
4. What can be responsibly concluded from the supplied reporting
Based solely on the supplied sources, it is not possible to state a specific percentage of Somali‑American eligible voters who cast ballots in the 2024 general election; the best available official dataset mentioned (CPS Voting and Registration Supplement) and exit polls and community reporting provide partial, overlapping insights but do not report a Somali‑only turnout figure in the excerpts provided [1] [2] [3]. Reporting from Minnesota and community outlets indicates active political engagement and changing partisan preferences within Somali communities, which suggests turnout was a subject of interest and mobilization efforts, but that does not equate to a quantifiable national turnout rate for Somali Americans [6] [8] [7].
5. How to get the precise number (next steps for researchers)
To obtain a defensible Somali‑American turnout percentage, researchers should (a) consult the full CPS Voting and Registration Supplement tables and underlying microdata to see whether “Somali” ancestry or birthplace is available; (b) check state election offices or validated local studies in Somali‑dense jurisdictions (e.g., Minneapolis/St. Paul) for precinct‑level turnout combined with demographic estimates; and (c) pursue targeted post‑election surveys that sample by ancestry — approaches reflected in the data sources and methods described by the Census and Election Lab but not realized in the published excerpts here [1] [4].