How did Somali-American votes in 2024 vary by state or city (e.g., Minnesota)?
Executive summary
Data and reporting show Somali-American voting in 2024 was not monolithic: in Minnesota — the country’s largest Somali community — support for the Democratic presidential ticket fell relative to 2020 in Somali-heavy precincts (e.g., a 14-point drop in Cedar‑Riverside), while surveys and on‑the‑ground reporting show increased attraction to Republican messages on economy, education and social issues (polls: Harris support ~55%; Trump support ~23%) [1] [2] [3].
1. Minneapolis story: precinct swings, not defections
Local election analysis and precinct‑level reporting find Kamala Harris still carried Somali‑heavy precincts in Minneapolis but by substantially thinner margins than Biden in 2020 — Cedar‑Riverside saw a reported 14‑point decline and other Somali neighborhoods registered single‑digit to low‑teens drops — a shift described as “withheld support” rather than wholesale realignment [4] [1] [5].
2. Polling and surveys: measurable but partial drift
Survey work cited by Minnesota outlets and community researchers shows erosion rather than collapse: a Bayan Research Center poll reported about 55% of Somalis in Minnesota planned to back Harris in 2024, down from Biden’s 62% in 2020, with Trump support reported rising to roughly 23% and third‑party/undecided shares non‑trivial — evidence of a movement but not an exodus from the Democratic column [2].
3. Why some Somali voters shifted: issues on the ground
Reporting and interviews attribute part of the shift to economic concerns, school/LGBTQ cultural debates, public safety and frustration with foreign‑policy handling of Gaza — issues that pushed a slice of Somali voters toward Republican messaging on values and the economy or into abstention, according to community voices and local journalists [6] [3] [7].
4. Voices from within the community: competing perspectives
Community leaders and activists relayed conflicting narratives: some Somali organizers insisted their communities would reject Trump, emphasizing economic fairness and anti‑racist outrage (VOA, local groups), while others — including Somali Republicans and conservative organizers — said social conservatism and economic messaging made Trump or GOP candidates attractive. Both viewpoints are present in reporting [8] [6] [7].
5. Turnout, interpretation and the limits of precinct comparisons
Analysts caution that comparing 2024 to 2020 must account for turnout and different top‑of‑ticket dynamics: Minnesota’s overall turnout patterns and how precincts reported ballots mean a decline in Democratic margin can reflect lower turnout among Democratic‑leaning subgroups or increased Republican turnout rather than identical numbers switching across the board (Ballotpedia turnout context; precinct analyses in local reporting) [9] [4].
6. National context and scattered reporting outside Minnesota
Available reporting in the provided sources focuses overwhelmingly on Minnesota; there is reporting of Somali Americans running and winning local seats and increased political engagement nationally, but systematic, state‑by‑state vote tallies for Somali‑American voters outside Minnesota are not present in these sources. National racial‑group post‑election polling documents broad shifts among multiple communities but do not isolate Somali‑American precinct‑level behavior beyond Minnesota [10] [11] [12]. Available sources do not mention comprehensive state or city breakdowns for Somali‑American votes beyond Minnesota.
7. What’s reliably known and what isn’t
Reliable: Minnesota precinct reporting and local polls document a measurable decline in Democratic presidential support in Somali neighborhoods and a rise in expressed support for Trump versus 2020 [1] [2] [3]. Not found in current reporting: a nationwide, disaggregated vote share for Somali‑American voters by state or city that would allow precise comparisons outside Minnesota; such granular, validated data are not present in the supplied sources [12] [11].
8. Implicit agendas and why sources differ
Local outlets and community polls emphasize civic participation and nuance; conservative outlets highlight anecdotal endorsements of Trump or GOP gains; academic and community‑research pieces stress identity and socioeconomic drivers. Each source frames shifts in ways that can amplify selective anecdotes [6] [13] [14]. Readers should note that partisan outlets often spotlight striking individual cases while community surveys present aggregate trends with smaller sample caveats [2].
9. Bottom line for readers and reporters
Somali‑American voting in 2024 — particularly in Minneapolis and other Minnesota communities — showed a clear erosion of Democratic margins and a rise in Republican support and third‑party/abstention options, but not a unified swing to the GOP. The strongest, verifiable evidence in the available reporting pertains to Minnesota precincts and localized polling; broader, state‑by‑state conclusions are not supported by the supplied sources [1] [2] [4].
Limitations: this account relies only on the provided reporting and polls; broader or more precise national breakdowns for Somali‑American voters by state or city are not in these sources and therefore cannot be asserted here [12] [11].