How do 2024 Somali-American voting patterns compare to 2016 and 2020?
Executive summary
Local reporting and post‑election surveys indicate a measurable shift of Somali‑American voters toward Republicans in 2024 compared with 2016 and 2020: polls show Somali support for the Democratic ticket fell from roughly 62% for Biden in 2020 to about 55% for Harris in 2024, while Trump/Republican support among Somalis rose into the low‑to‑mid‑20s in 2024 [1]. Multiple news outlets and community interviews describe economic and social issues, especially concerns about schools and religious values, as the key drivers of that movement [2] [3].
1. A clear—if not uniform—shift in Somali voting intentions
State and community polling reported in 2024 and summarized after the election show Somali support for the Democratic presidential nominee declined: a Bayan Research Center poll found 55% of Somalis planned to back Harris in 2024, down from 62% who said they voted for Biden in 2020, while support for Trump rose about 10 points to 23% [1]. Local reporting from Minnesota — the U.S. hub of Somali Americans — likewise documented weaker support for the Democratic ticket in Somali‑heavy precincts compared with the citywide baseline [4]. These figures signal a meaningful but not dominant swing, not a wholesale partisan realignment.
2. Why some Somali voters moved: religion, education and economics
Multiple interviews and community voices point to cultural and policy concerns driving the shift: worries about social issues in schools, religious values and the economy were repeatedly cited as reasons some Somali voters were willing to consider or choose Republican candidates in 2024 despite past hostility toward Trump’s rhetoric and immigration stances [2] [3]. Local activists and analysts told VOA and Sahan Journal that debates over LGBTQ issues in schools and perceived cultural drift factored heavily into voters’ calculations [2] [5].
3. Internal disagreement: activism and organized resistance continued
Not all Somali community leaders accepted the drift to the right. Local organizations and activists continued to mobilize against Trump and to encourage turnout for Democrats, stressing policy differences and the risks of anti‑immigrant rhetoric; one town hall in Minneapolis featured both parties urging Somali participation and a Somali activist chair insisting “there’s no way the community will vote for Trump” [5]. This reflects a community with competing viewpoints rather than a united swing [5] [1].
4. Broader national context: small shifts within larger patterns
National analyses show that in 2024 Trump made gains among several demographics, including a larger share of Black voters than in 2016 or 2020 — Pew found roughly 15% of Black voters supported Trump in 2024 compared with 8% in 2020 and 6% in 2016 — illustrating a wider pattern of modest rightward movement among some groups that previously leaned heavily Democratic [6]. The Somali trend in Minnesota fits this national pattern of incremental Republican gains among some nonwhite constituencies [6].
5. Data limits and uncertainty: polls, precinct returns and representativeness
Available reporting relies on a mix of small community polls, precinct‑level vote margins and interviews; the Bayan Research Center poll cited had 343 respondents, 79% from Minnesota, which limits national generalizability [1]. State election data indicating weaker Democratic margins in Somali neighborhoods show local behavior but do not provide a complete national Somali‑American vote breakdown [4]. Precise national figures for Somali‑American voting patterns are not available in the cited sources — available sources do not mention a nationwide exit‑poll estimate specifically for Somali Americans.
6. Competing narratives and motivations inside the community
Journalistic accounts and community outlets offer competing narratives: some outlets and interviewees emphasize principled, value‑based shifts toward Republicans on cultural issues [2] [3]; others underscore continued Democratic loyalty, civic mobilization and fears about Trump’s policies toward immigrants and Muslims [5] [1]. Observers should view the community as politically heterogeneous with both substantive converts and committed Democrats.
7. What this means going forward
The reporting suggests Somali‑American political alignment is more fluid than often presumed: a durable Democratic advantage exists but can be eroded by concentrated concerns around schools, religion and pocketbook issues [2] [1]. For campaigns and civic groups, the takeaway is that targeted, authentic engagement on local issues matters; for analysts, the Somali experience in 2024 is an example of how modest shifts in subgroups can affect battleground margins even without wholesale realignment [6] [4].
Limitations: this analysis uses local reporting, a community poll and national demographic studies from the provided sources; it does not rely on a comprehensive national exit poll of Somali Americans because such data are not cited in the available reporting (not found in current reporting).