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What special elections are scheduled or likely in 2024–2026 that could change House control?
Executive summary
There is no single, comprehensive list in the provided sources of every special U.S. House election that could flip control between 2024–2026; available reporting emphasizes that special elections do occur and that narrow partisan margins make a few of them consequential (Republicans held a slim House majority after 2024: 219–215 or similar counts in sources) [1] [2]. Ballotpedia and 270toWin note a handful of special elections tied to the 118th and 119th Congresses and warn that special contests in 2025–2026 could shift a tight majority in the House ahead of the full 2026 biennial contest [3] [4] [5].
1. Why special elections matter when the House majority is narrow
When the governing majority is narrow, each vacancy and subsequent special election can change committee control, legislative math and messaging; Ballotpedia and related trackers show Republicans holding a slim House edge after 2024 (roughly 219–220 to 215) with some vacancies noted, so even a single special-seat turnover could matter for close votes or for projecting momentum into 2026 [1] [2]. These trackers treat special elections as micro-battles that can presage broader shifts heading into the 2026 midterms [5] [1].
2. What special elections were scheduled or occurred in 2024–2025 (examples from sources)
Coverage catalogs several special contests concurrent with the 2024 general cycle: 270toWin listed two U.S. House special elections to complete expiring 118th‑Congress terms alongside regular ballots in 2024, and Ballotpedia documents special elections in late 2024 and into 2025 for seats such as Florida’s 1st and other districts where winners would temporarily serve in the outgoing Congress [4] [3]. Ballotpedia’s timeline mentions Erica Lee Carter winning a special election and serving a short term before the winner of the full-term race took office, illustrating how temporary occupants can appear between Congresses [3].
3. Known scheduled special elections in 2025–2026 from the trackers
Ballotpedia and Wikipedia note that special elections to the 119th Congress (2025–2026) were being tracked and that at least some special contests were scheduled or expected in 2026; Wikipedia explicitly lists “three special elections scheduled in 2026 to the 119th United States Congress” without detailing all districts in the snippet, and Ballotpedia’s 2026 hub frames special elections as a recurring possibility during the 119th [3] [6] [5]. 270toWin and Ballotpedia also emphasize that winners of special elections sometimes serve only the remainder of a term while the full two‑year elections occur on the regular schedule [4] [5].
4. How likely special elections are to change House control before November 2026
The sources underline that control is determined by the aggregate seat count and that Republicans entered the post‑2024 period with a slim House majority; Reuters and Ballotpedia stress the narrowness and the competitive 2026 map Republicans must defend [7] [1]. Given that, special elections held when a few seats are vacant can flip the balance, but none of the provided sources give a definitive list of which upcoming specials are most likely to flip the chamber — they instead flag that special elections are possible and that margins are narrow enough to make them consequential [1] [7].
5. What the trackers and news outlets don’t say (important limits)
Available sources do not list every special election date or every vulnerable seat between 2024–2026 in a single, authoritative roster; instead Ballotpedia, 270toWin and Wikipedia provide rolling lists and state‑by‑state pages that are updated as vacancies emerge [3] [4] [6]. They also do not assert that any single special election is guaranteed to flip control — sources frame these as contingent events dependent on vacancies, candidate quality, and turnout [5] [1].
6. Practical takeaway for readers tracking control
Monitor three things in the trackers cited here: [8] official vacancies and governor appointment dates or resignation announcements tracked on Ballotpedia/Wikipedia; [9] calendared special election dates and whether those contests are for short remainder terms or full two‑year terms (270toWin explains concurrent special-and-general ballots); and [10] the current partisan seat count and listed vacancies [3] [4] [1]. These sources will flag the handful of special contests that — given a narrow majority — could plausibly swing control ahead of the full 2026 elections [1] [5].
Sources referenced: Ballotpedia (special elections and 2026 hub) [3] [5], 270toWin (2024 & 2026 special-election listings) [4] [11], Reuters (context on narrow majority and 2026 battlegrounds) [7], Ballotpedia overview of 2026 Congress elections [1].