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Which states saw the largest turnout increases or decreases on November 4 2025 vs 2021?
Executive Summary
The available reporting does not provide a complete, state-by-state ranking of turnout changes between November 4, 2025 and 2021; however, contemporary coverage points to substantial turnout increases in New York City and parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest, and notable declines in parts of Washington state, with several outlets flagging record-low participation in some Washington counties and record-high participation in New York City [1] [2] [3]. No single source among the provided materials offers a comprehensive nationwide comparison, so definitive "largest" state-level increases or decreases cannot be confirmed from these items alone [4] [5].
1. Why the question can’t be answered cleanly — absence of a nationwide comparison
None of the supplied analyses include a systematic, state-by-state comparison of turnout on November 4, 2025 versus 2021; multiple pieces explicitly note the lack of cross-year state-level tallies needed to declare which states saw the largest swings. Ballotpedia’s 2025 election roundup and several turnout explainers discuss results and trends but stop short of providing comparative turnout change metrics for every state, leaving a gap for any definitive ranking [5] [6]. The practical consequence is that while reporters can highlight local extremes and notable anecdotes — record turnout in one city or surprisingly low turnout in a county — they cannot, from these sources alone, produce an authoritative list of the largest statewide increases or decreases without additional aggregated data [4].
2. Strong, repeated evidence of a large increase in New York City turnout
Multiple contemporary accounts document striking turnout gains in New York City compared with 2021, describing early voting check-ins more than four times higher than the 2021 mayoral election and total ballots cast exceeding 2 million — the most in a mayoral race since 1969 (reporting dated November 3–4, 2025). These pieces attribute the surge to intense interest in the mayoral contest and energized voter groups, and they present consistent numeric signals that New York City alone accounts for a major portion of the Northeast’s turnout spike [1] [2]. Given the size of New York City’s electorate, the city-level surge plausibly drives a substantial statewide increase for New York, making the state one of the clearest examples of 2025 turnout gains among the materials provided [2].
3. Localized high-turnout stories in the Midwest that suggest regional gains
Reporting points to record-breaking turnout in Minneapolis and strong mobilization in New Jersey that contributed to landslide outcomes, indicating heightened turnout in parts of the Upper Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic during 2025. These accounts are framed as local phenomena — driven by competitive races, specific candidates, or ballot measures — rather than as definitive statewide tallies, but the coverage implies that parts of Minnesota and New Jersey experienced notable increases when compared to recent off-cycle elections [1] [2]. Because the supplied pieces focus on municipal or county-level peaks, they support a plausible inference of broader state-level gains in those regions, though such inferences require state aggregate data to confirm magnitude and rank [1].
4. Clear evidence of turnout decreases in parts of Washington state
Reporting from Washington on November 3–4, 2025 highlights low overall turnout — with statewide check-ins trailing 2023’s record-low pace at the same point and some populous counties like Pierce and Snohomish reporting particularly low percentages — suggesting a substantive decrease in voter engagement in that state relative to recent cycles. The Washington piece emphasizes county-level variation, noting that several smaller counties bucked the trend while larger counties grappling with lower participation drag down the statewide picture; the coverage raises the prospect that Washington could finish among the lowest-turnout years on record absent a late surge [3]. Without an explicit 2021 baseline in that article, the conclusion is that Washington shows one of the clearest localized declines among the sources provided, though quantifying the exact state-level change versus 2021 would require comparative totals.
5. How to get a definitive answer and where reporting points policymakers and analysts
To identify the exact states with the largest turnout increases or decreases between November 4, 2025 and 2021, analysts must compile certified state-level voter participation rates for comparable ballots (typically total ballots cast divided by voting-eligible population) for both years and compute percent-point or percentage changes. The supplied journalism highlights where the biggest local shifts occurred — New York City’s surge, Minneapolis’ record turnout, New Jersey’s high engagement, and Washington’s weak performance [2] [1] [3] — but the reporting itself repeatedly warns that these snapshots are not a substitute for a systematic cross-state dataset [5] [4]. Researchers should therefore consult official state election offices or national aggregators for the raw certified totals before declaring definitive statewide winners and losers on turnout.