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Which states are projected to gain the largest unauthorized immigrant populations in 2025 and why?
Executive summary
Most available analyses say the largest increases in unauthorized immigrants through 2023 concentrated in traditional gateway states (California, Texas, Florida, New York) and some Sun‑belt and mid‑Atlantic states, but 2024–25 dynamics changed that pattern: growth slowed or reversed nationally and state gains in 2025 depend on shifting border flows, parole/policy changes and deportations (see Pew and MPI reporting) [1] [2]. Exact state‑by‑state projections for “largest gains in 2025” are not consistently enumerated in the sources; instead, sources describe drivers that determine which states rise or fall [3] [4].
1. What the major data projects actually report — broad winners and losers
Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and Pew report that as of mid‑2023 the largest unauthorized populations were concentrated in big gateway states and metropolitan areas — California, Texas, Florida and New York among them — and MPI’s state and county profiles give detailed 2023 totals [1] [5]. Pew’s later review shows a national peak in 2023 (14 million) and then points to declines in 2025 driven by policy and enforcement changes; those shifts imply that states that previously gained most may not be the ones with the largest net increases in 2025 [2] [3].
2. Why simple “who gains most in 2025” is hard to pin down
Pew warns that 2024–25 estimates are less complete and comparable to earlier years because of methodological changes and incomplete administrative data, and monthly Current Population Survey trends indicate the total foreign‑born population fell by mid‑2025 — meaning “largest gains” could be few or absent nationally [6] [3]. MPI similarly emphasizes that unauthorized populations grew rapidly through 2023 but that flows and locations depend on changing origins, parole programs and enforcement [1] [4].
3. The policy levers shaping state trends in 2024–25
Three policy shifts drive where unauthorized immigrants end up: [7] U.S. asylum and parole program openings/closures that route arrivals toward specific states; [8] domestic enforcement and deportation priorities that can shrink local populations; and [9] bilateral or Mexican enforcement that alters border crossings and downstream dispersal. Pew and MPI both highlight parole programs (which concentrated arrivals in certain states) being paused or ended, and increased removals in 2025 — all of which reduced inflows to states that benefited earlier [2] [1] [3].
4. Which states were poised to gain before the 2025 reversal — and why
Prior to the mid‑2024 slowdown, MPI and related analyses showed rapid increases from South America and the Caribbean that tended to concentrate in Florida, New York metro areas, and certain Sun‑belt counties; Central American growth also expanded populations in Texas and parts of the Southeast [1] [4]. Those geographic patterns reflected established migrant networks, labor demand, and parole routes — all classic predictors of near‑term state gains when arrivals rise [1].
5. What changed in 2025 that shifts projected gains to losses or stagnation
Pew’s August 2025 reporting states that a combination of paused asylum intake, halted parole programs and rising deportations produced a national slowdown and a likely decline of more than 1 million unauthorized immigrants between January and June 2025; that implies many states that had been gaining could see smaller increases or net decreases in 2025 [2] [6] [3]. MPI and academic commentary similarly note that the Trump administration’s enforcement priorities and tightened border controls in late 2024–25 could reduce new arrivals and accelerate outflows [4] [10].
6. Competing interpretations and limits of the record
Pew, MPI and university analyses agree on large recent growth through 2023 but disagree somewhat on timing and magnitude for 2024–25: MPI’s 13.7 million mid‑2023 estimate and Pew’s 14 million figure are broadly similar for 2023, yet they caution that 2025 trends are provisional and incomplete [1] [2]. Sources repeatedly flag methodological caveats — CPS monthly data are helpful but not definitive; administrative tables lag and coding changes complicate comparisons [3] [6].
7. Bottom line for your question: which states will gain most in 2025?
Available sources do not list a definitive ranked projection of states that will gain the largest unauthorized immigrant populations in 2025; instead, they show that states that had recent gains (California, Texas, Florida, New York and certain Sun‑belt states) were likely to have been the primary destinations historically, but policy changes and increased deportations in 2025 probably reduced or reversed those gains [1] [2] [3]. If you need a state‑by‑state projection, consult MPI’s state profiles and Pew’s follow‑up tabulations as they update 2025 estimates, since the reporting emphasizes that trends hinge on evolving policy and enforcement [5] [6].