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Fact check: Which states have the highest number of independent voters?
Executive Summary
Most sources in the provided analyses do not list a definitive ranking of states by number of independent (unaffiliated) voters; North Carolina is the sole state explicitly reported as having a large unaffiliated bloc — roughly 3 million registrants or 38.5% of registered voters [1]. The remaining documents focus on demographics, types of independents, and state rules, leaving a geographic gap in the data that prevents a comprehensive state-by-state answer from these materials alone [2] [3] [4].
1. What the batch of analyses actually claims about "which states" — the clear lead story
The only direct state-level claim in the supplied analyses identifies North Carolina as having an unusually large share of unaffiliated voters: about 3 million registrants, 38.5% of the registered electorate, versus roughly 30.5% Democrats and 30.3% Republicans [1]. This is the sole concrete state ranking provided among the documents. Other pieces do not attempt to compile or rank states by independent registration totals, so the collection as given cannot substantiate a broader list of states with the highest independent counts beyond the North Carolina figure [1].
2. What the sources say about independents in general — patterns that matter for state comparisons
Several analyses emphasize that younger voters are more likely to identify as independent, a demographic pattern that has been noted as shifting political landscapes, but these observations are presented without state-by-state tallies [2]. The materials stress trends and voter types rather than geographic distribution. Because youth population concentrations vary by state, demographic patterns alone cannot reliably indicate which states have the most independents without explicit registration data to pair with those trends [2].
3. The CNN poll material — different independents, not different states
The supplied CNN-based analyses categorize independents into five types — Democratic Lookalikes, Republican Lookalikes, the Disappointed Middle, the Upbeat Outsiders, and the Checked Out — and note differences in engagement and news-seeking behavior [3] [5] [4]. These typologies illuminate internal diversity among independents but do not provide geographic counts, so they cannot substitute for a state ranking. The poll’s findings underscore that independents are heterogeneous, which complicates equating “more independents” with uniform political behavior across states [3] [5].
4. State procedural context — rules that can affect independent registration and visibility
One analysis highlights Mississippi’s open primary system, where registered voters can choose any party primary regardless of affiliation, framing how state rules shape independent behavior and perceived influence [6]. Open vs. closed primary rules can affect both registration incentives and how politically active unaffiliated voters appear, making raw registration totals an incomplete measure of political significance without procedural context. The presence of open primaries can increase the visibility of independents without necessarily changing their absolute numbers [6].
5. Data gaps and why the supplied documents fall short of a full state ranking
Most entries explicitly state they do not provide specific state-level counts [2] [6] [5]. This absence is the principal limitation: without additional data sources such as state election offices, the U.S. Census’ Current Population Survey, or national registration compilations, the supplied materials cannot produce a verified list of states with the highest numbers of independents. The analyses instead focus on demographics, typologies, and single-state reporting (North Carolina), leaving large gaps in comparative geographic coverage [2].
6. How to interpret the North Carolina finding in context
The North Carolina figure cited — 3 million unaffiliated registrants at 38.5% — stands out as a robust, recent state datapoint in the set [1]. That single data point suggests state-level shifts toward unaffiliated registration can be substantial, but it cannot be generalized nationally without comparable data from other states. Readers should treat the North Carolina statistic as a confirmed example rather than proof of a broader ranking; it highlights a trend that other states may or may not mirror, depending on local demographics and registration rules [1].
7. What additional sources would complete the picture and why they matter
To compile a reliable list of states with the most independents, one must consult multiple, recent sources: state voter registration databases, national compilations that aggregate state registrations, and surveys that reconcile self-identification with registration status. The supplied documents explicitly lack such comprehensive tabulations, so they cannot answer the original question beyond identifying North Carolina’s pronounced unaffiliated share [1] [2] [3].
8. Bottom line — what we can and cannot conclude from these analyses
From the provided analyses, the only verifiable state-level claim is that North Carolina has a very large unaffiliated voter bloc (~3 million, 38.5%); other documents emphasize demographics and typologies without state rankings [1] [3] [4]. Therefore, the question “Which states have the highest number of independent voters?” cannot be fully answered using only these materials; further data collection from state registries or national registration compilations is required to produce a comprehensive, ranked list [2] [6].