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Fact check: Which states have the highest numbers of undocumented immigrants?
Executive Summary
The clearest, consistently reported finding is that California and Texas contain the largest populations of unauthorized (undocumented) immigrants, with leader estimates around 2.3 million and 2.1 million respectively, and five to six states together accounting for a large share of the national total [1]. Recent state-level profiles and studies confirm that other populous states—Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois—also host substantial unauthorized populations, while smaller states like New Mexico and regions such as Orange County show much smaller but locally significant counts [1] [2] [3]. Policymakers’ shifting laws and federal actions are reshaping the policy context for these populations [4] [5].
1. Why two states dominate the map: California and Texas are population and immigration hubs
California and Texas are the top states by unauthorized population in most recent national estimates because they combine large total populations, major immigrant gateways, and established migrant networks, producing the highest absolute counts of unauthorized residents. The Pew study cited places California at about 2.3 million and Texas at about 2.1 million unauthorized immigrants, together representing a disproportionate share of an estimated 14 million nationwide [1]. This pattern reflects long-standing migration, employment concentrations in agriculture, construction, and services, and metropolitan pull factors, not necessarily higher per-capita rates compared with some smaller states [1].
2. The next tier: Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois concentrate big numbers
Following the two leaders, Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois appear repeatedly in national tallies as states with sizable unauthorized populations, reflecting both large overall populations and specific migration flows from Latin America and the Caribbean. National-level analyses highlight these states as the other core locations that, with California and Texas, account for the majority of the U.S. unauthorized population [1]. State-specific demographic profiles show different country-of-origin mixes—Florida includes large Venezuelan and Colombian communities, while New York and New Jersey have heterogeneous Latin American and Caribbean origins—shaping local policy and service needs [6].
3. Smaller states and counties matter: local concentrations and distinct profiles
Although national counts emphasize big-state totals, smaller states and counties can have important concentrations and distinct policy impacts, illustrated by New Mexico’s estimated 63,000 unauthorized residents and Orange County studies that explore economic and social consequences [2] [3]. These areas often have higher local visibility of undocumented populations relative to their size, localized labor market integration, and distinctive country-of-origin mixes, which national tallies can obscure. Policy responses and enforcement effects are therefore uneven across states and localities, with significant local economic and community consequences [3] [2].
4. Data limits: absolute counts vs. rates and measurement challenges
Any snapshot of “which states have the highest numbers” depends on methodology: studies report absolute counts, share of total state population, and estimates that rely on survey adjustments, creating variation across sources. The cited national estimate of about 14 million unauthorized immigrants underpins the state tallies, but measurement error, undercounting, and differing cutoffs affect state rankings [7] [1]. Researchers caution against equating absolute numbers with per-capita prevalence; a smaller state with a high per-capita rate may receive less attention than a large state with a higher headcount [7].
5. Policy shifts are reshaping where counts matter: state laws and federal actions
Recent state legislative activity and federal policy changes are altering local contexts for undocumented residents: dozens of 2025 state laws and federal moves on student aid and enforcement are creating a patchwork that changes risk, mobility, and service access for these populations [4] [5]. States enacting more restrictive measures, and federal restrictions on benefits, can drive internal migration, affect willingness to be counted in surveys, and influence local economies, complicating cross-state comparisons and future trend projections [4] [5].
6. Diverse sources converge but show different emphases—watch for agendas
Data compilations focus on counts (national/state estimates), while advocacy and academic reports emphasize impacts of raids, economic losses, and community effects; each source has an agenda that shapes emphasis on counts versus consequences [3] [8]. National demographic studies frame where people live; local research highlights economic dislocations from enforcement; policy outlets document law changes. A balanced conclusion uses both types of evidence: absolute counts to identify top states and local studies to explain why those numbers matter in practice [1] [3] [8].
7. Bottom line and what’s missing for policymakers and the public
The best-supported, recent conclusion is that California and Texas lead in absolute numbers of unauthorized immigrants, followed by Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois, with important local concentrations elsewhere such as New Mexico and Orange County [1] [2] [3]. What remains incomplete are timely, standardized substate counts, clearer per-capita comparisons, and transparent methodology across studies to assess shifts due to 2025 policy changes; filling those gaps is essential for accurate resource allocation and coherent policy responses [7] [4].