Which swing states show the largest net disapproval of Donald Trump and what polling underlies those maps?
Executive summary
Swing-state voters most consistently showing net disapproval of President Donald Trump are the seven battlegrounds from the 2024 map—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—and multiple state-by-state trackers put several of those states substantially underwater for Trump (Morning Consult, Civiqs, aggregated Newsweek reporting) [1] [2] [3]. The precise net-disapproval magnitudes differ by tracker and date—Civiqs and Newsweek maps place states like Michigan and Nevada among the worst off (double-digit net disapproval), while Morning Consult’s rolling state surveys and model-based estimates show the same pattern but smaller variances—illustrating that the maps are driven by different polling methods and timing [4] [5] [1].
1. Which swing states show the largest net disapproval: a consistent 7-state cluster
Across the reporting, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin repeatedly appear as swing states where more voters disapprove than approve of Trump; Morning Consult explicitly lists those seven battlegrounds as remaining net-negative for Trump [1], and aggregated Newsweek maps and Civiqs state estimates show those same states with negative net approval figures in the mid- to high-single digits and into the double digits in some snapshots [4] [2].
2. How large are the net disapproval numbers on the maps, and why they vary
Specific maps and write-ups show different headline numbers: a Newsweek state map citing Civiqs reported net approval figures such as Arizona -12, Pennsylvania -13, Michigan -15, Nevada -15, Georgia -14, Wisconsin -11 and North Carolina -8 in one snapshot [4], while other Newsweek pieces and trackers quoted slightly different values—e.g., Michigan -11, Nevada -12, North Carolina -8, Wisconsin -13, Arizona -12, Pennsylvania -12 and Georgia -6—illustrating variation across sampling windows and tracking methodologies [5]. The differences arise because some outlets report model-based reconstructions (e.g., data-journalist G. Elliott Morris’s modeling that blends state results with national shifts), while others rely on continuous state-level surveys like Morning Consult’s daily tracker or Civiqs’ online state polling, each with distinct samples, weighting and timing [3] [1] [2].
3. What polling underlies the maps: trackers, models and single-state polls
The principal inputs are three types: daily or frequent state trackers (Morning Consult’s thousands-of-surveys-per-day registered-voter tracker is explicitly cited as producing state net-approval estimates) [1]; online state polling aggregators such as Civiqs used for the Newsweek maps [2]; and model-based estimates that combine national trends and state vote patterns, exemplified by G. Elliott Morris’s Strength In Numbers analysis that reprojects state approval from national shifts and modeled state-level adjustments [3]. Individual university and local polls (for example Elon University or Catawba College/YouGov in North Carolina) are also reported and pick up state swings at finer time slices, which Newsweek cites when highlighting particular state moves [6] [7].
4. Interpreting the maps: what they really say—and what they don’t
The maps consistently signal that the swing-state map that elected Trump in 2024 now contains several states where he is polling net-negative, often by single- or low-double digits; that pattern is reinforced by national disapproval levels that have been elevated in multiple trackers (Civiqs and other polls reporting disapproval in the mid-50s) and by periodic national snapshots such as Gallup showing disapproval surges at certain moments [2] [8] [9]. However, the maps do not prove uniform voter movement across every county or demographic: margins shift by pollster methodology, sample composition (registered voters vs. adults vs. likely voters), and timing—meaning that while the overall direction is consistent, precise magnitudes and electoral implications for future contests require caution and cannot be read solely from one map [1] [3].
5. Hidden agendas, caveats and the bottom line
Media maps and headlines tend to amplify the worst-looking snapshot—Newsweek’s map and Morris’s modeling are highlighted repeatedly in coverage and may overstate certainty to create a clear narrative, whereas Morning Consult’s rolling state tracker and individual academic polls often show smaller but steady negative shifts [3] [1] [5]. The bottom line from the available reporting is clear: multiple independent trackers place Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the swing states with the largest and most consistent net disapproval of Trump, but the exact deficit in each state depends on which poll or model one credits and when it was conducted [1] [4] [5].